Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#168 Hillsboro (8-1) 115.1

Updated 22-Oct-2018 5:56PM
Week 9 complete
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#32 of 107 in Division III
#7 of 27 in Region 11
Eitel team page
Region 11 projections
Region 11 playoff probabilities
Region 11 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 30-28 A #328 Mount Orab Western Brown (3-6 D2 R8), pick: L by 3 (55%)
Sep 01 (W2) W 26-7 A #257 Goshen (6-3 D3 R11), pick: L by 16 (80%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 49-0 H #681 Sabina East Clinton (0-9 D5 R20), pick: W by 34 (96%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 55-35 A #595 Williamsburg (3-6 D6 R24), pick: W by 27 (93%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 29-7 H #569 Batavia Clermont Northeastern (6-3 D5 R20), pick: W by 28 (94%)
Sep 28 (W6) L 30-36 H #204 Chillicothe (7-2 D2 R8), pick: L by 6 (65%)
Oct 05 (W7) W 71-50 A #255 Washington Court House Washington (6-3 D4 R16), pick: W by 4 (59%)
Oct 12 (W8) W 27-21 A #209 Jackson (6-3 D3 R11), pick: W by 1 (52%)
Oct 19 (W9) W 47-13 A #542 Washington Court House Miami Trace (2-7 D3 R11), pick: W by 28 (96%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #590 Greenfield McClain (2-7 D4 R16), pick: W by 32 (98%)

Lists on which the team appears
Most improved teams
Playoff streaks & droughts

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#89 of 107 in Division 3

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 9-1
23.20 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #5 seed in R11 playoffs

Win probabilities:
8W-1%, 9W-99%

Playoff chance
100% now (need 8-2), 1% home
100% with a win in next game, and 100% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
8W: 21.70 (20.60-22.80) 100% in, 0% home, proj. #5 (#5-#7)
9W: 23.20 (22.10-24.30) 100% in, 1% home, proj. #5 (#3-#6)

Playoff scenarios
99% W 23.20 pts, 100% in, 1% home (#5, range #3-#6) Eastmoor Academy 93%
1.0% L 21.70 pts, 100% in (#5, range #5-#7) Eastmoor Academy 62%

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
93% Columbus Eastmoor Academy (8-1)
6% Bellbrook (9-0)
1% Granville (8-1)

Championship probabilities
1.2% Region 11 champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W9: 115.1 (8-1, #168, D3 #32) in and 1% home, proj. #5
W8: 115.4 (7-1, #168, D3 #33) 99% (need 8-2), 22% home, proj. #5
W7: 113.7 (6-1, #190, D3 #40) 70% (bubble if 8-2), 20% home, proj. out
W6: 110.8 (5-1, #220, D3 #49) 56% (bubble if 8-2), 7% home, proj. #7
W5: 110.3 (5-0, #226, D3 #46) 72% (need 8-2), 29% home, proj. #7
W4: 110.0 (4-0, #225, D3 #47) 75% (need 8-2), 30% home, proj. #7
W3: 107.6 (3-0, #266, D3 #53) 46% (bubble if 8-2), 15% home, proj. #8
W2: 109.3 (2-0, #231, D3 #49) 45% (bubble if 8-2), 16% home, proj. out
W1: 100.7 (1-0, #355, D3 #76) 11% (bubble if 8-2), 3% home, proj. out
W0: 98.8 (0-0, #406, D3 #83) 4% (bubble if 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 102.8 (7-3)