Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#469 Lancaster Fairfield Union (3-6) 91.2

Updated 22-Oct-2018 5:56PM
Week 9 complete
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#76 of 107 in Division IV
#14 of 27 in Region 15
Eitel team page
Region 15 projections
Region 15 playoff probabilities
Region 15 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 14-27 H #440 New Lexington (5-4 D4 R15), pick: W by 4 (58%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 0-34 H #209 Jackson (6-3 D3 R11), pick: L by 20 (84%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 28-0 A #531 McArthur Vinton County (3-6 D4 R15), pick: L by 2 (54%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 38-7 A #636 Circleville (0-9 D4 R15), pick: W by 14 (78%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 6-45 H #246 Amanda-Clearcreek (8-1 D5 R19), pick: L by 8 (67%)
Sep 28 (W6) L 7-48 A #241 Ashville Teays Valley (6-3 D2 R8), pick: L by 24 (92%)
Oct 04 (W7) L 21-41 H #339 Columbus Hamilton Township (4-5 D3 R11), pick: L by 5 (62%)
Oct 12 (W8) W 34-21 A #588 Circleville Logan Elm (1-8 D4 R15), pick: W by 9 (72%)
Oct 19 (W9) L 7-44 H #268 Bloom-Carroll (7-2 D4 R15), pick: L by 15 (82%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #486 Baltimore Liberty Union (1-8 D5 R19), pick: L by 1 (52%)

Lists on which the team appears
Key games by region

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#68 of 107 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 3-7
3.70 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R15 playoffs

Win probabilities:
3W-52%, 4W-48%

Playoff scenarios
48% W 4.65 pts, out
52% L 3.70 pts, out

Weekly ranking & projection history
W9: 91.2 (3-6, #469, D4 #76) out
W8: 91.1 (3-5, #472, D4 #76) out
W7: 90.3 (2-5, #482, D4 #78) out
W6: 92.8 (2-4, #462, D4 #72) 1% , proj. out
W5: 93.1 (2-3, #461, D4 #74) 1% , proj. out
W4: 95.0 (2-2, #437, D4 #66) 7% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 96.9 (1-2, #404, D4 #60) 8% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 91.7 (0-2, #484, D4 #77) 2% , proj. out
W1: 92.3 (0-1, #471, D4 #73) 7% (need 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 100.5 (0-0, #387, D4 #57) 26% (need 6-4), 10% home, proj. out
Last year 103.8 (6-4)