Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#310 The Plains Athens (8-1) 104.9

Updated 22-Oct-2018 5:56PM
Week 9 complete
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#64 of 107 in Division III
#17 of 27 in Region 11
Eitel team page
Region 11 projections
Region 11 playoff probabilities
Region 11 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 51-26 H #552 Vincent Warren (2-7 D3 R11), pick: W by 26 (90%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 31-35 A #422 Proctorville Fairland (5-4 D4 R15), pick: W by 12 (72%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 26-16 H Parkersburg South WV (6-2 D2)
Sep 14 (W4) W 50-0 A #603 Albany Alexander (4-5 D5 R19), pick: W by 18 (84%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 42-13 H #531 McArthur Vinton County (3-6 D4 R15), pick: W by 14 (78%)
Sep 28 (W6) W 21-14 A #397 Logan (1-8 D2 R7), pick: L by 4 (59%)
Oct 05 (W7) W 50-20 A #492 Pomeroy Meigs (3-6 D4 R15), pick: W by 12 (76%)
Oct 12 (W8) W 39-14 H #535 Wellston (3-6 D5 R19), pick: W by 17 (85%)
Oct 19 (W9) W 55-16 H #659 Bidwell River Valley (0-9 D5 R19), pick: W by 31 (97%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #468 Nelsonville-York (4-5 D6 R23), pick: W by 12 (77%)

Lists on which the team appears
Playoff quirks
Key games by region

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#106 of 107 in Division 3

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 99
Projected record 9-1
18.79 Harbin points (divisor 99)
Projected #8 seed in R11 playoffs

Win probabilities:
8W-22%, 9W-78%

Playoff chance
54% now (need 9-1)
68% with a win in next game, and 4% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
8W: 16.52 (15.87-18.04) 4% in, 0% home, proj. out
9W: 18.79 (18.14-20.31) 68% in, 0% home, proj. #8 (#7-out)

Playoff scenarios
78% W 18.79 pts, 68% in (#8, range #7-out) Bishop Hartley 63%
22% L 16.52 pts, 4% in (out, range #7-out) Bishop Hartley 90%

Teams to root for
Week 10: Chillicothe (7-2 D2 R8) over Jackson (6-3 D3 R11)
Week 10: Parkersburg South WV (6-2 D2) over Wheeling Park WV (6-2 D2)
Week 10: Reynoldsburg (8-1 D1 R2) over Lancaster (6-3 D1 R3)
Week 10: Columbus Bishop Watterson (4-5 D3 R11) over Columbus St Francis DeSales (5-4 D3 R11)
Week 10: Bidwell River Valley (0-9 D5 R19) over Crown City South Gallia (3-6 D7 R27)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
64% Columbus Bishop Hartley (7-2)
34% Granville (8-1)
2% Bellbrook (9-0)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W9: 104.9 (8-1, #310, D3 #64) 54% (need 9-1), proj. #8
W8: 104.3 (7-1, #318, D3 #64) 27% (bubble if 9-1), proj. #8
W7: 104.3 (6-1, #314, D3 #64) 16% , proj. out
W6: 103.0 (5-1, #331, D3 #63) 26% (bubble if 9-1), 1% home, proj. out
W5: 100.3 (4-1, #358, D3 #70) 15% (bubble if 9-1), 1% home, proj. out
W4: 98.2 (3-1, #387, D3 #76) 11% (bubble if 9-1), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 98.1 (2-1, #393, D3 #80) 19% (bubble if 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 101.5 (1-1, #354, D3 #73) 25% (bubble if 8-2), 2% home, proj. out
W1: 108.7 (1-0, #238, D3 #48) 68% (bubble if 8-2), 29% home, proj. #2
W0: 110.8 (0-0, #241, D3 #56) 59% (need 8-2), 24% home, proj. #4
Last year 107.0 (8-2)