Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#107 Thornville Sheridan (8-1) 122.8

Updated 22-Oct-2018 5:56PM
Week 9 complete
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#17 of 107 in Division III
#4 of 27 in Region 11
Eitel team page
Region 11 projections
Region 11 playoff probabilities
Region 11 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 36-21 A #206 Newark Licking Valley (6-3 D4 R15), pick: L by 3 (56%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 49-0 A #364 Zanesville Maysville (5-4 D3 R11), pick: W by 16 (79%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 37-7 H #182 New Concord John Glenn (6-3 D4 R15), pick: W by 15 (78%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 42-7 H #397 Logan (1-8 D2 R7), pick: W by 26 (93%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 62-0 A #689 Zanesville West Muskingum (0-9 D5 R19), pick: W by 41 (99%)
Sep 28 (W6) W 45-7 H #247 Duncan Falls Philo (6-3 D4 R15), pick: W by 16 (83%)
Oct 05 (W7) L 19-20 A #109 Dresden Tri-Valley (8-1 D2 R7), pick: L by 3 (57%)
Oct 12 (W8) W 49-0 H #440 New Lexington (5-4 D4 R15), pick: W by 28 (96%)
Oct 19 (W9) W 41-0 A #584 Crooksville (2-7 D6 R23), pick: W by 35 (98%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #620 McConnelsville Morgan (1-8 D4 R15), pick: W by 38 (99%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#77 of 107 in Division 3

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 9-1
21.25 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #6 seed in R11 playoffs

Win probabilities:
9W-100%

Playoff chance
100% now (need 9-1)
100% with a win in next game

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
9W: 21.25 (20.75-22.90) 100% in, 0% home, proj. #6 (#5-#7)

Playoff scenarios
100% W 21.25 pts, 100% in (#6, range #5-#7) Bellbrook 83%
0.1% L 20.40 pts, 100% in (#6, range #6-#7) Bellbrook 66%

Teams to root for
Week 10: Chillicothe (7-2 D2 R8) over Jackson (6-3 D3 R11)
Week 10: McArthur Vinton County (3-6 D4 R15) over Wellston (3-6 D5 R19)
Week 10: Newark Licking Valley (6-3 D4 R15) over Pataskala Licking Heights (6-3 D2 R7)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
83% Bellbrook (9-0)
10% Granville (8-1)
7% Columbus Eastmoor Academy (8-1)

Championship probabilities
7.2% Region 11 champ
1.1% Division 3 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W9: 122.8 (8-1, #107, D3 #17) in but no home game, proj. #6
W8: 122.9 (7-1, #101, D3 #16) 99% (need 9-1), 1% home, proj. #7
W7: 124.1 (6-1, #90, D3 #14) 94% (bubble if 8-2), 5% home, proj. #6
W6: 124.9 (6-0, #83, D3 #13) 97% (bubble if 8-2), 44% home, proj. #6
W5: 124.3 (5-0, #85, D3 #14) 96% (need 8-2), 58% home, proj. #3
W4: 123.4 (4-0, #92, D3 #17) 96% (need 8-2), 58% home, proj. #3
W3: 123.6 (3-0, #87, D3 #16) 92% (bubble if 8-2), 54% home, proj. #4
W2: 122.6 (2-0, #92, D3 #15) 73% (bubble if 8-2), 30% home, proj. #6
W1: 120.8 (1-0, #102, D3 #15) 51% (bubble if 8-2), 19% home, proj. #8
W0: 116.4 (0-0, #170, D3 #38) 22% (bubble if 8-2), 7% home, proj. out
Last year 119.0 (6-4)