Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#255 Washington Court House Washington (6-3) 108.8

Updated 22-Oct-2018 5:56PM
Week 9 complete
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#36 of 107 in Division IV
#9 of 26 in Region 16
Eitel team page
Region 16 projections
Region 16 playoff probabilities
Region 16 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 58-42 A #466 Blanchester (4-5 D5 R20), pick: W by 5 (59%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 68-6 H #636 Circleville (0-9 D4 R15), pick: W by 14 (76%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 7-57 A #114 London (9-0 D4 R16), pick: L by 6 (63%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 54-6 H #645 Columbus Linden McKinley (0-9 D4 R15), pick: W by 22 (89%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 29-14 A #254 Columbus St Charles (4-5 D2 R7), pick: L by 15 (81%)
Sep 28 (W6) L 40-69 A #209 Jackson (6-3 D3 R11), pick: W by 1 (52%)
Oct 05 (W7) L 50-71 H #168 Hillsboro (8-1 D3 R11), pick: L by 4 (59%)
Oct 12 (W8) W 62-20 H #590 Greenfield McClain (2-7 D4 R16), pick: W by 25 (93%)
Oct 19 (W9) W 20-7 A #204 Chillicothe (7-2 D2 R8), pick: L by 15 (83%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #542 Washington Court House Miami Trace (2-7 D3 R11), pick: W by 24 (94%)

Lists on which the team appears
Biggest upsets

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#45 of 107 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 7-3
14.40 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R16 playoffs

Win probabilities:
6W-6%, 7W-94%

Playoff chance
8% now
8% with a win in next game, and 0% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
7W: 14.40 (13.40-16.00) 8% in, 0% home, proj. out

Playoff scenarios
94% W 14.40 pts, 8% in (out, range #8-out) Wyoming 82%
5.9% L 12.85 pts, out

Teams to root for
Week 10: Mount Orab Western Brown (3-6 D2 R8) over Batavia (6-3 D4 R16)
Week 10: Chillicothe (7-2 D2 R8) over Jackson (6-3 D3 R11)
Week 10: Springfield Shawnee (5-4 D4 R16) over Plain City Jonathan Alder (6-3 D4 R16)
Week 10: St Paris Graham Local (2-7 D4 R16) over Springfield Northwestern (6-3 D4 R16)
Week 10: Columbus Linden McKinley (0-9 D4 R15) over Columbus East (3-6 D4 R15)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
82% Cincinnati Wyoming (9-0)
14% Clarksville Clinton-Massie (8-1)
4% Cincinnati Indian Hill (8-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W9: 108.8 (6-3, #255, D4 #36) 8% , proj. out
W8: 104.0 (5-3, #324, D4 #46) 6% (bubble if 7-3), proj. out
W7: 103.6 (4-3, #321, D4 #46) 2% , proj. out
W6: 105.7 (4-2, #290, D4 #39) 10% (need 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
W5: 109.7 (4-1, #234, D4 #30) 30% (need 8-2), 2% home, proj. out
W4: 99.1 (3-1, #374, D4 #54) 4% (need 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 98.8 (2-1, #386, D4 #57) 4% (need 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 103.2 (2-0, #329, D4 #48) 24% (bubble if 7-3), 3% home, proj. out
W1: 101.6 (1-0, #343, D4 #45) 25% (bubble if 7-3), 3% home, proj. out
W0: 99.7 (0-0, #398, D4 #61) 14% (bubble if 7-3), 2% home, proj. out
Last year 100.7 (5-5)