Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#624 Burton Berkshire (1-4) 76.2

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#94 of 106 in Division V
#25 of 27 in Region 17
Eitel team page
Region 17 projections
Region 17 playoff probabilities
Region 17 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 26-23 H #603 Painesville Harvey (0-5 D3 R9), pick: L by 10 (69%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 21-41 A #421 Orwell Grand Valley (4-1 D5 R17), pick: L by 17 (80%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 6-47 A #402 Garrettsville Garfield (4-1 D5 R17), pick: L by 16 (80%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 14-19 H #629 Fairport Harbor Fairport Harding (3-2 D7 R25), pick: W by 13 (77%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 26-42 A #368 Cuyahoga Heights (4-1 D7 R25), pick: L by 25 (92%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #426 Independence (3-2 D6 R21), pick: L by 21 (90%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #543 Richmond Heights (2-3 D7 R25), pick: L by 6 (64%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #110 Kirtland (5-0 D6 R21), pick: L by 40 (99%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #287 Wickliffe (5-0 D5 R17), pick: L by 26 (94%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #561 Middlefield Cardinal (1-4 D6 R21), pick: L by 6 (64%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#80 of 106 in Division 5

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 2-8
2.65 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R17 playoffs

Win probabilities:
1W-35%, 2W-44%, 3W-18%, 4W-2%

Best realistic scenario
2.7% WLLLW 4.85 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
35% LLLLL 1.00 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
20% LLLLW 2.50 pts, out
18% LWLLL 2.80 pts, out
11% LWLLW 4.00 pts, out
4.3% WLLLL 3.55 pts, out
(9% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 75.3 (1-3, #628, D5 #95) out
W3: 81.6 (1-2, #579, D5 #85) 1% , proj. out
W2: 83.7 (1-1, #558, D5 #84) 1% , proj. out
W1: 86.1 (1-0, #543, D5 #80) 3% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 80.7 (0-0, #613, D5 #95) 1% , proj. out
Last year 73.0 (1-9)