Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#599 Campbell Memorial (0-5) 78.4

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#85 of 110 in Division VI
#21 of 28 in Region 21
Eitel team page
Region 21 projections
Region 21 playoff probabilities
Region 21 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 25 (W1) L 7-14 A #477 Youngstown Valley Christian School (4-1 D7 R25), pick: W by 1 (50%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 0-16 H #508 Columbus Bexley (1-4 D4 R15), pick: L by 4 (58%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 37-48 A #504 East Palestine (2-3 D5 R17), pick: L by 12 (74%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 0-73 A #268 Leavittsburg LaBrae (5-0 D5 R17), pick: L by 28 (94%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 7-53 H #271 Youngstown Liberty (4-1 D6 R21), pick: L by 26 (93%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #226 Girard (4-1 D4 R13), pick: L by 28 (95%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #219 Struthers (3-2 D4 R13), pick: L by 27 (94%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #642 Warren Champion (0-5 D5 R17), pick: W by 7 (65%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #373 Brookfield (1-4 D6 R21), pick: L by 23 (91%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #606 Newton Falls (4-1 D6 R21), pick: W by 2 (54%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#25 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 1-9
0.95 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R21 playoffs

Win probabilities:
0W-13%, 1W-44%, 2W-37%, 3W-5%

Best realistic scenario
3.2% LLWWW 4.90 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
13% LLLLL 0.00 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
30% LLWLW 2.80 pts, out
25% LLWLL 0.45 pts, out
17% LLLLW 2.35 pts, out
2.9% LLWWL 2.55 pts, out
(9% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 78.5 (0-4, #604, D6 #86) out
W3: 81.1 (0-3, #586, D6 #78) 1% , proj. out
W2: 81.2 (0-2, #582, D6 #78) 1% , proj. out
W1: 84.1 (0-1, #561, D6 #74) 1% , proj. out
W0: 89.9 (0-0, #527, D6 #63) 3% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 90.3 (3-7)