Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#360 Doylestown Chippewa (3-2) 100.3

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#42 of 106 in Division V
#11 of 27 in Region 17
Eitel team page
Region 17 projections
Region 17 playoff probabilities
Region 17 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 7-31 H #197 Akron Manchester (4-1 D5 R17), pick: L by 9 (67%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 28-7 H #363 Loudonville (3-2 D6 R22), pick: W by 8 (66%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 27-34 A #401 Massillon Tuslaw (2-3 D5 R17), pick: L by 2 (55%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 21-20 A #544 Apple Creek Waynedale (0-5 D5 R17), pick: W by 10 (71%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 53-24 H #519 Dalton (1-4 D7 R25), pick: W by 9 (69%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #528 Smithville (1-4 D6 R21), pick: W by 12 (76%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #289 Jeromesville Hillsdale (4-1 D6 R22), pick: L by 4 (59%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #423 West Salem Northwestern (2-3 D5 R17), pick: W by 3 (57%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #535 Rittman (2-3 D7 R25), pick: W by 16 (82%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #124 Creston Norwayne (4-1 D6 R21), pick: L by 23 (91%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#45 of 106 in Division 5

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 6-4
10.80 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R17 playoffs

Win probabilities:
4W-9%, 5W-30%, 6W-40%, 7W-18%, 8W-2%

Playoff chance
9% now (bubble if 7-3), 1% home
11% with a win in next game, and 5% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 10.80 (9.00-15.30) 2% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 13.60 (12.10-16.95) 37% in, 1% home, proj. out
8W: 17.10 (16.05-18.55) 99% in, 46% home, proj. #5 (#1-out)

Best realistic scenario
2.4% WLWWW 14.00 pts, 48% in (out, range #5-out) Manchester 35%

Worst realistic scenario
3.1% WLLLL 6.35 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
19% WLWWL 10.20 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
14% WLLWL 8.10 pts, out
13% WWWWL 13.35 pts, 27% in, 1% home (out, range #4-out) Manchester 36%
10% WWLWL 11.15 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
5.4% LLWWL 8.95 pts, out
4.3% LLLWL 6.85 pts, out
(28% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 10: Loudonville (3-2 D6 R22) over Canal Fulton Northwest (2-3 D4 R13)
Week 8: East Canton (3-2 D7 R25) over Magnolia Sandy Valley (4-1 D5 R17)
Week 6: Loudonville (3-2 D6 R22) over Massillon Tuslaw (2-3 D5 R17)
Week 7: Loudonville (3-2 D6 R22) over Orrville (4-1 D5 R17)
Week 10: Pepper Pike Orange (5-0 D4 R14) over Beachwood (4-1 D5 R17)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
29% Akron Manchester (4-1)
18% Wickliffe (5-0)
16% Gates Mills Gilmour Academy (5-0)
11% Leavittsburg LaBrae (5-0)
8% Orrville (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 98.8 (2-2, #378, D5 #46) 4% (need 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 96.9 (1-2, #402, D5 #52) 2% , proj. out
W2: 96.7 (1-1, #406, D5 #54) 7% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 95.2 (0-1, #438, D5 #61) 8% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 100.5 (0-0, #386, D5 #49) 20% (need 7-3), 6% home, proj. out
Last year 96.7 (4-6)