Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#226 Girard (4-1) 110.2

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#27 of 106 in Division IV
#9 of 27 in Region 13
Eitel team page
Region 13 projections
Region 13 playoff probabilities
Region 13 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 23 (W1) W 49-13 A #382 Niles McKinley (1-4 D3 R9), pick: W by 7 (63%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 32-48 A #94 Hubbard (5-0 D4 R13), pick: L by 8 (65%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 47-0 H #538 Warren John F Kennedy (1-4 D7 R25), pick: W by 21 (87%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 44-10 A #642 Warren Champion (0-5 D5 R17), pick: W by 29 (95%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 56-6 H #595 Jefferson Area (0-5 D4 R13), pick: W by 27 (94%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #599 Campbell Memorial (0-5 D6 R21), pick: W by 28 (95%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #373 Brookfield (1-4 D6 R21), pick: W by 7 (66%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #606 Newton Falls (4-1 D6 R21), pick: W by 29 (95%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #268 Leavittsburg LaBrae (5-0 D5 R17), pick: L by 1 (50%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #271 Youngstown Liberty (4-1 D6 R21), pick: L by 1 (52%)

Lists on which the team appears
Best teams in playoff danger

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#87 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 8-2
15.10 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #6 seed in R13 playoffs

Win probabilities:
6W-6%, 7W-28%, 8W-44%, 9W-22%

Playoff chance
49% now (bubble if 8-2), 2% home
49% with a win in next game, and 43% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 9.05 (7.05-13.65) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 12.05 (8.95-17.10) 7% in, 0% home, proj. out
8W: 15.10 (12.30-19.60) 58% in, 1% home, proj. #8 (#4-out)
9W: 18.60 (16.30-20.65) 99% in, 7% home, proj. #6 (#3-out)

Best realistic scenario
22% WWWWW 18.60 pts, 99% in, 7% home (#6, range #3-out) Perry 26%

Worst realistic scenario
4.8% WLWLL 8.75 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
19% WWWWL 14.95 pts, 52% in, 1% home (#8, range #4-out) Steubenville 43%
15% WWWLW 14.65 pts, 46% in (out, range #5-out) Steubenville 43%
12% WWWLL 10.90 pts, 1% in (out, range #7-out)
8.7% WLWWW 16.50 pts, 87% in, 1% home (#7, range #4-out) Steubenville 28%
8.0% WLWWL 12.80 pts, 12% in (out, range #5-out) Steubenville 54%
5.9% WLWLW 12.55 pts, 8% in (out, range #5-out) Steubenville 55%
(5% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 9: Weir WV (4-1 D4) over East Liverpool (3-2 D4 R13)
Week 6: Beloit West Branch (4-1 D3 R9) over Carrollton (3-2 D4 R13)
Week 9: Warren John F Kennedy (1-4 D7 R25) over Cleveland Central Catholic (0-5 D3 R10)
Week 10: Akron East (4-1 D3 R9) over Akron Buchtel (3-2 D4 R13)
Week 8: Niles McKinley (1-4 D3 R9) over Warren Howland (0-5 D3 R9)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
27% Steubenville (4-1)
24% Poland Seminary (5-0)
19% Hubbard (5-0)
19% Perry (4-1)
9% Cuyahoga Falls Cuyahoga Valley Christian Academy (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 108.2 (3-1, #253, D4 #33) 22% (need 9-1), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 107.9 (2-1, #261, D4 #33) 18% (need 9-1), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 107.6 (1-1, #260, D4 #32) 14% (bubble if 9-1), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 111.0 (1-0, #214, D4 #25) 34% (bubble if 9-1), 9% home, proj. out
W0: 109.2 (0-0, #259, D4 #29) 28% (bubble if 8-2), 7% home, proj. out
Last year 115.1 (10-2)