Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#103 Gnadenhutten Indian Valley (5-0) 122.2

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#11 of 106 in Division IV
#1 of 27 in Region 15
Eitel team page
Region 15 projections
Region 15 playoff probabilities
Region 15 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 40-0 H #484 Coshocton (1-4 D5 R19), pick: W by 17 (79%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 48-20 A #197 Akron Manchester (4-1 D5 R17), pick: L by 1 (52%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 58-13 H #589 Minerva (0-5 D4 R13), pick: W by 34 (97%)
Sep 15 (W4) W 42-28 A #316 Magnolia Sandy Valley (4-1 D5 R17), pick: W by 13 (76%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 50-6 H #506 Lore City Buckeye Trail (3-2 D6 R23), pick: W by 30 (96%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #301 West Lafayette Ridgewood (5-0 D5 R19), pick: W by 16 (83%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #685 Newcomerstown (0-5 D6 R21), pick: W by 42 (99%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #308 Sugarcreek Garaway (5-0 D6 R21), pick: W by 18 (86%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #514 Zoarville Tuscarawas Valley (2-3 D5 R19), pick: W by 30 (96%)
Oct 25 (W10) A #593 Uhrichsville Claymont (0-5 D4 R15), pick: W by 34 (98%)

Lists on which the team appears
Winning & losing streaks
Best team performances

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#75 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 10-0
24.45 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #2 seed in R15 playoffs

Win probabilities:
8W-3%, 9W-28%, 10W-69%

Playoff chance
100% now (need 8-2), 99% home
100% with a win in next game, and 100% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
8W: 16.90 (14.25-20.85) 100% in, 59% home, proj. #4 (#2-#8)
9W: 20.55 (18.00-25.10) 100% in, 99% home, proj. #2 (#1-#6)
10W: 24.45 (21.05-27.90) 100% in, 100% home, proj. #2 (#1-#3)

Best realistic scenario
69% WWWWW 24.45 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#2, range #1-#3) Philo 19%

Worst realistic scenario
2.3% LWLWW 16.65 pts, 100% in, 49% home (#5, range #2-#8) Bloom-Carroll 27%

Most likely other scenarios
15% LWWWW 20.45 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#3, range #1-#6) Philo 16%
10% WWLWW 20.50 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#2, range #1-#6) Fairland 18%
1.3% WWWLW 22.25 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#2, range #1-#3) Philo 15%
0.5% WWWWL 23.15 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#2, range #1-#3) Zane Trace 19%

Teams to root for
Week 6: Bainbridge Paint Valley (5-0 D6 R23) over Chillicothe Unioto (4-1 D4 R15)
Week 9: Ironton (3-2 D5 R19) over Gallipolis Gallia Academy (4-1 D4 R15)
Week 7: Bellaire (5-0 D5 R19) over St Clairsville (5-0 D4 R15)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
18% Duncan Falls Philo (3-2)
16% Proctorville Fairland (3-2)
13% Newark Licking Valley (3-2)
13% Chillicothe Zane Trace (3-2)
11% Bloom-Carroll (4-1)

Championship probabilities
44% Region 15 champ
6.4% Division 4 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 122.5 (4-0, #99, D4 #10) 99% (need 8-2), 99% home, proj. #2
W3: 120.3 (3-0, #116, D4 #11) 99% (need 7-3), 94% home, proj. #2
W2: 121.0 (2-0, #108, D4 #9) 99% (need 7-3), 89% home, proj. #2
W1: 113.0 (1-0, #181, D4 #20) 91% (bubble if 6-4), 66% home, proj. #4
W0: 113.3 (0-0, #207, D4 #22) 79% (need 7-3), 51% home, proj. #2
Last year 116.9 (11-1)