Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#470 Hanoverton United (3-2) 92.5

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#53 of 110 in Division VI
#16 of 28 in Region 21
Eitel team page
Region 21 projections
Region 21 playoff probabilities
Region 21 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 42-13 A #589 Minerva (0-5 D4 R13), pick: L by 1 (53%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 0-22 H #338 Salem (3-2 D4 R13), pick: L by 10 (69%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 29-6 A #694 Newbury (0-5 D7 R25), pick: W by 29 (94%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 40-27 H #504 East Palestine (2-3 D5 R17), pick: W by 1 (52%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 14-20 H #409 Columbiana (2-3 D6 R21), pick: W by 2 (55%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #605 Wellsville (2-3 D7 R25), pick: W by 15 (81%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #292 Salineville Southern (5-0 D6 R21), pick: L by 5 (61%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #626 Leetonia (3-2 D7 R25), pick: W by 18 (85%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #549 Toronto (2-3 D7 R25), pick: W by 18 (86%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #588 Lisbon David Anderson (2-3 D7 R25), pick: W by 13 (79%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#68 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 6-4
8.70 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R21 playoffs

Win probabilities:
4W-3%, 5W-15%, 6W-37%, 7W-37%, 8W-8%

Playoff chance
1% now
1% with a win in next game, and 0% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
8W: 13.90 (12.55-15.65) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out

Best realistic scenario
8.4% WWWWW 13.90 pts, 1% in (out, range #7-out)

Worst realistic scenario
2.1% WLLLW 6.70 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
26% WLWWW 10.30 pts, out
10% WLWLW 8.50 pts, out
9.2% WLWWL 8.60 pts, out
7.5% LLWWW 8.85 pts, out
5.5% WLLWW 8.55 pts, out
3.7% WLWLL 6.80 pts, out
(28% some other outcome)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
70% Mogadore (4-1)
20% Rootstown (5-0)
10% Kirtland (5-0)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 95.4 (3-1, #430, D6 #43) 6% (bubble if 9-1), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 92.8 (2-1, #458, D6 #44) 3% (bubble if 9-1), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 93.2 (1-1, #456, D6 #41) 6% (need 9-1), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 96.2 (1-0, #421, D6 #35) 36% (bubble if 8-2), 9% home, proj. out
W0: 91.6 (0-0, #510, D6 #57) 15% (need 8-2), 3% home, proj. out
Last year 91.7 (6-4)