Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#414 Howard East Knox (5-0) 96.8

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#41 of 110 in Division VI
#7 of 27 in Region 23
Eitel team page
Region 23 projections
Region 23 playoff probabilities
Region 23 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 55-2 A #683 Zanesville West Muskingum (0-5 D5 R19), pick: W by 15 (76%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 51-10 A #537 Utica (1-4 D4 R15), pick: W by 9 (68%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 68-6 H #651 Strasburg-Franklin (1-4 D7 R25), pick: W by 18 (83%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 55-0 H #689 Mount Gilead (0-5 D6 R23), pick: W by 29 (94%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 47-17 A #667 Cardington-Lincoln (0-5 D7 R27), pick: W by 25 (92%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #481 Centerburg (3-2 D6 R23), pick: W by 3 (57%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #299 Galion Northmor (5-0 D6 R23), pick: L by 7 (65%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #574 Fredericktown (1-4 D5 R19), pick: W by 15 (81%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #237 Marengo Highland (4-1 D4 R14), pick: L by 13 (78%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #507 Danville (0-5 D7 R27), pick: W by 8 (68%)

Lists on which the team appears
Playoff streaks & droughts
Playoff quirks

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#107 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 8-2
11.05 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #8 seed in R23 playoffs

Win probabilities:
6W-10%, 7W-32%, 8W-38%, 9W-17%, 10W-2%

Playoff chance
39% now (bubble if 8-2), 4% home
52% with a win in next game, and 19% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
7W: 8.65 (5.85-13.05) 6% in, 0% home, proj. out
8W: 11.05 (8.75-16.40) 48% in, 1% home, proj. out
9W: 14.15 (12.25-18.05) 99% in, 13% home, proj. #6 (#1-out)
10W: 17.60 (16.30-19.45) 100% in, 83% home, proj. #3 (#1-#6)

Best realistic scenario
2.3% WWWWW 17.60 pts, 100% in, 83% home (#3, range #1-#6) Northmor 18%

Worst realistic scenario
4.4% LLWLL 6.15 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
18% WLWLW 10.40 pts, 25% in (out, range #6-out) Fort Frye 27%
12% LLWLW 7.65 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
9.4% WWWLW 14.00 pts, 99% in, 9% home (#6, range #2-out) Fort Frye 21%
7.2% WLWLL 8.85 pts, 3% in (out, range #7-out)
6.7% LWWLW 11.20 pts, 46% in (out, range #5-out) Paint Valley 26%
4.6% WLLLW 9.00 pts, 4% in (out, range #7-out)
(35% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 10: Strasburg-Franklin (1-4 D7 R25) over New Philadelphia Tuscarawas Central Catholic (2-3 D7 R25)
Week 10: Sugar Grove Berne Union (4-1 D7 R27) over Worthington Christian (2-3 D6 R23)
Week 9: Utica (1-4 D4 R15) over Johnstown Northridge (1-4 D5 R19)
Week 6: Chillicothe Unioto (4-1 D4 R15) over Bainbridge Paint Valley (5-0 D6 R23)
Week 10: Utica (1-4 D4 R15) over Hebron Lakewood (1-4 D4 R15)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
22% Beverly Fort Frye (4-0)
20% Columbus Grandview Heights (5-0)
18% Bainbridge Paint Valley (5-0)
15% Shadyside (4-1)
14% Galion Northmor (5-0)

Championship probabilities
1.6% Region 23 champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 97.0 (4-0, #404, D6 #37) 35% (bubble if 8-2), 6% home, proj. #8
W3: 97.3 (3-0, #397, D6 #32) 39% (bubble if 8-2), 9% home, proj. out
W2: 93.8 (2-0, #446, D6 #37) 31% (bubble if 8-2), 6% home, proj. out
W1: 91.1 (1-0, #482, D6 #49) 19% (need 8-2), 4% home, proj. out
W0: 91.8 (0-0, #508, D6 #56) 14% (bubble if 7-3), 2% home, proj. out
Last year 97.2 (7-3)