Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#268 Leavittsburg LaBrae (5-0) 106.9

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#22 of 106 in Division V
#7 of 27 in Region 17
Eitel team page
Region 17 projections
Region 17 playoff probabilities
Region 17 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 41-0 H #499 Conneaut (3-2 D4 R13), pick: W by 11 (70%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 55-14 H #538 Warren John F Kennedy (1-4 D7 R25), pick: W by 9 (67%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 49-13 A #439 Cortland Lakeview (1-4 D4 R13), pick: L by 3 (55%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 73-0 H #599 Campbell Memorial (0-5 D6 R21), pick: W by 28 (94%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 61-7 H #642 Warren Champion (0-5 D5 R17), pick: W by 32 (97%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #271 Youngstown Liberty (4-1 D6 R21), pick: W by 1 (52%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #606 Newton Falls (4-1 D6 R21), pick: W by 28 (95%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #373 Brookfield (1-4 D6 R21), pick: W by 11 (75%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #226 Girard (4-1 D4 R13), pick: W by 1 (50%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #595 Jefferson Area (0-5 D4 R13), pick: W by 26 (94%)

Lists on which the team appears
Winning & losing streaks
Most improved teams

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#104 of 106 in Division 5

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 8-2
14.75 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #5 seed in R17 playoffs

Win probabilities:
6W-1%, 7W-13%, 8W-36%, 9W-38%, 10W-11%

Playoff chance
81% now (need 8-2), 46% home
98% with a win in next game, and 66% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 11.00 (7.30-14.00) 4% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 12.30 (9.65-16.90) 23% in, 1% home, proj. out
8W: 14.75 (11.75-19.80) 78% in, 12% home, proj. #7 (#1-out)
9W: 17.90 (15.10-22.15) 99% in, 78% home, proj. #3 (#1-out)
10W: 21.35 (18.25-23.95) 100% in, 100% home, proj. #1 (#1-#4)

Best realistic scenario
11% WWWWW 21.35 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#1, range #1-#4) Sandy Valley 16%

Worst realistic scenario
8.3% LWLLW 11.95 pts, 12% in (out, range #5-out) Manchester 40%

Most likely other scenarios
20% LWWLW 14.05 pts, 66% in, 2% home (#8, range #2-out) Manchester 23%
18% WWWLW 17.65 pts, 99% in, 74% home (#4, range #1-out) Gilmour Academy 15%
14% LWWWW 17.60 pts, 100% in, 75% home (#4, range #1-#8) Gilmour Academy 15%
7.1% WWLLW 15.50 pts, 91% in, 16% home (#6, range #1-out) Gilmour Academy 20%
5.2% LWLWW 15.58 pts, 94% in, 20% home (#6, range #2-out) Gilmour Academy 20%
5.0% WWLWW 19.30 pts, 100% in, 96% home (#2, range #1-#7) Sandy Valley 13%
(12% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 10: Conneaut (3-2 D4 R13) over Orwell Grand Valley (4-1 D5 R17)
Week 10: Pepper Pike Orange (5-0 D4 R14) over Beachwood (4-1 D5 R17)
Week 8: Kent Roosevelt (2-3 D2 R5) over Columbiana Crestview (3-2 D5 R17)
Week 9: Wintersville Indian Creek (3-2 D4 R13) over Columbiana Crestview (3-2 D5 R17)
Week 9: Warren John F Kennedy (1-4 D7 R25) over Cleveland Central Catholic (0-5 D3 R10)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
15% Gates Mills Gilmour Academy (5-0)
12% Wickliffe (5-0)
11% Akron Manchester (4-1)
11% Orrville (4-1)
10% Columbiana Crestview (3-2)

Championship probabilities
8.1% Region 17 champ
0.7% Division 5 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 109.7 (4-0, #228, D5 #16) 89% (bubble if 7-3), 62% home, proj. #2
W3: 109.4 (3-0, #233, D5 #15) 94% (bubble if 7-3), 72% home, proj. #1
W2: 102.8 (2-0, #332, D5 #33) 72% (bubble if 7-3), 37% home, proj. #3
W1: 98.9 (1-0, #379, D5 #45) 42% (bubble if 7-3), 15% home, proj. out
W0: 98.0 (0-0, #420, D5 #56) 29% (bubble if 6-4), 11% home, proj. out
Last year 97.9 (5-5)