Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#401 Massillon Tuslaw (2-3) 97.6

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#50 of 106 in Division V
#15 of 27 in Region 17
Eitel team page
Region 17 projections
Region 17 playoff probabilities
Region 17 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 20-7 A #519 Dalton (1-4 D7 R25), pick: L by 15 (76%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 7-35 A #141 Millersburg West Holmes (5-0 D3 R9), pick: L by 9 (68%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 34-27 H #360 Doylestown Chippewa (3-2 D5 R17), pick: W by 2 (55%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 26-48 H #197 Akron Manchester (4-1 D5 R17), pick: L by 7 (64%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 0-35 A #223 Orrville (4-1 D5 R17), pick: L by 10 (72%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #363 Loudonville (3-2 D6 R22), pick: W by 1 (52%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #172 Cuyahoga Falls Cuyahoga Valley Christian Academy (4-1 D4 R13), pick: L by 12 (76%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #442 Wooster Triway (2-3 D5 R17), pick: W by 4 (59%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #353 Canal Fulton Northwest (2-3 D4 R13), pick: W by 3 (57%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #468 Navarre Fairless (2-3 D5 R17), pick: W by 3 (58%)

Lists on which the team appears
Toughest schedules

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#9 of 106 in Division 5

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 4-6
8.45 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R17 playoffs

Win probabilities:
2W-4%, 3W-21%, 4W-36%, 5W-28%, 6W-10%

Playoff chance
5% now (need 7-3), 1% home
9% with a win in next game, and 1% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
4W: 8.45 (5.70-12.15) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
5W: 10.70 (7.75-15.10) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 13.25 (10.65-16.50) 30% in, 1% home, proj. out
7W: 16.25 (14.10-18.70) 92% in, 21% home, proj. #6 (#2-out)

Best realistic scenario
5.4% WLWWW 12.50 pts, 15% in (out, range #5-out) Manchester 41%

Worst realistic scenario
4.3% LLLLL 4.35 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
8.9% LLWLW 7.85 pts, out
7.7% LLLLW 6.05 pts, out
7.4% LLWWW 10.25 pts, out
6.3% LLLWW 8.45 pts, out
6.2% WLWLW 10.15 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
5.8% WLLLW 8.30 pts, out
(48% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 9: Wintersville Indian Creek (3-2 D4 R13) over Columbiana Crestview (3-2 D5 R17)
Week 6: Cuyahoga Falls Cuyahoga Valley Christian Academy (4-1 D4 R13) over Orrville (4-1 D5 R17)
Week 7: Dalton (1-4 D7 R25) over Smithville (1-4 D6 R21)
Week 6: Dalton (1-4 D7 R25) over Apple Creek Waynedale (0-5 D5 R17)
Week 7: Doylestown Chippewa (3-2 D5 R17) over Jeromesville Hillsdale (4-1 D6 R22)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
29% Akron Manchester (4-1)
18% Wickliffe (5-0)
14% Gates Mills Gilmour Academy (5-0)
12% Leavittsburg LaBrae (5-0)
7% Orrville (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 99.5 (2-2, #370, D5 #43) 18% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home, proj. out
W3: 100.4 (2-1, #358, D5 #43) 34% (bubble if 6-4), 11% home, proj. out
W2: 97.6 (1-1, #400, D5 #53) 20% (bubble if 6-4), 5% home, proj. out
W1: 100.4 (1-0, #362, D5 #43) 43% (bubble if 6-4), 18% home, proj. #6
W0: 92.5 (0-0, #502, D5 #75) 6% (bubble if 6-4), 2% home, proj. out
Last year 89.9 (2-8)