Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#107 Perry (4-1) 121.7

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#12 of 106 in Division IV
#6 of 27 in Region 13
Eitel team page
Region 13 projections
Region 13 playoff probabilities
Region 13 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 28-14 A #148 Painesville Riverside (4-1 D2 R5), pick: W by 11 (70%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 43-49 A #169 Chardon (2-3 D3 R9), pick: W by 13 (75%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 38-6 A #314 Madison (2-3 D2 R5), pick: W by 3 (57%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 21-7 H #407 Chagrin Falls (0-5 D4 R14), pick: W by 22 (88%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 55-21 A #303 Beachwood (4-1 D5 R17), pick: W by 11 (73%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #27 Akron St Vincent-St Mary (3-2 D3 R9), pick: L by 17 (83%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #334 Chesterland West Geauga (1-4 D4 R13), pick: W by 15 (80%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #216 Pepper Pike Orange (5-0 D4 R14), pick: W by 8 (67%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #348 Geneva (2-3 D3 R9), pick: W by 21 (89%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #603 Painesville Harvey (0-5 D3 R9), pick: W by 36 (98%)

Lists on which the team appears
Key games this week
Toughest schedules

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#10 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 8-2
23.25 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #3 seed in R13 playoffs

Win probabilities:
6W-5%, 7W-28%, 8W-53%, 9W-14%

Playoff chance
99% now (need 6-4), 80% home
99% with a win in next game, and 99% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 16.90 (13.55-21.75) 94% in, 10% home, proj. #6 (#3-out)
7W: 19.90 (15.55-25.15) 99% in, 52% home, proj. #4 (#1-out)
8W: 23.25 (20.05-27.45) 100% in, 97% home, proj. #3 (#1-#6)
9W: 27.25 (24.30-30.50) 100% in, 100% home, proj. #2 (#1-#4)

Best realistic scenario
14% WWWWW 27.25 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#2, range #1-#4) East Liverpool 14%

Worst realistic scenario
2.0% LWLLW 16.35 pts, 95% in, 5% home (#6, range #4-out) Poland Seminary 25%

Most likely other scenarios
45% LWWWW 23.25 pts, 100% in, 97% home (#3, range #1-#6) Cuyahoga Valley Christian Academy 18%
15% LWLWW 18.85 pts, 99% in, 33% home (#5, range #2-out) Cuyahoga Valley Christian Academy 32%
6.8% LWWLW 20.65 pts, 100% in, 70% home (#4, range #1-#7) Cuyahoga Valley Christian Academy 30%
5.3% LLWWW 21.10 pts, 100% in, 75% home (#4, range #2-#8) Cuyahoga Valley Christian Academy 27%
4.0% WWLWW 23.10 pts, 100% in, 97% home (#3, range #1-#6) Cuyahoga Valley Christian Academy 21%
2.4% WWWLW 24.95 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#3, range #1-#5) Cuyahoga Valley Christian Academy 16%
(6% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 10: Akron Manchester (4-1 D5 R17) over Cuyahoga Falls Cuyahoga Valley Christian Academy (4-1 D4 R13)
Week 10: Madison (2-3 D2 R5) over Lyndhurst Brush (2-3 D2 R5)
Week 6: Orrville (4-1 D5 R17) over Cuyahoga Falls Cuyahoga Valley Christian Academy (4-1 D4 R13)
Week 10: Canfield (5-0 D3 R9) over Poland Seminary (5-0 D4 R13)
Week 8: Painesville Riverside (4-1 D2 R5) over Willoughby South (2-3 D2 R5)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
21% Cuyahoga Falls Cuyahoga Valley Christian Academy (4-1)
14% Hubbard (5-0)
12% East Liverpool (3-2)
9% Girard (4-1)
8% Carrollton (3-2)

Championship probabilities
8.2% Region 13 champ
1.5% Division 4 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 119.2 (3-1, #136, D4 #13) 90% (bubble if 6-4), 56% home, proj. #4
W3: 119.7 (2-1, #123, D4 #12) 86% (bubble if 6-4), 49% home, proj. #5
W2: 117.7 (1-1, #142, D4 #14) 71% (bubble if 6-4), 40% home, proj. #4
W1: 123.4 (1-0, #81, D4 #6) 86% (need 7-3), 61% home, proj. #2
W0: 123.7 (0-0, #83, D4 #4) 79% (bubble if 6-4), 50% home, proj. #4
Last year 130.6 (12-1)