Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#28 Steubenville (4-1) 134.5

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#1 of 106 in Division IV
#1 of 27 in Region 13
Eitel team page
Region 13 projections
Region 13 playoff probabilities
Region 13 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 14-21 H Penn Hills PA (5-0 D2)
Aug 31 (W2) W 21-17 H Morgantown WV (3-2 D1)
Sep 07 (W3) W 40-19 H Football North (via St Joseph) ON (1-4 D3)
Sep 15 (W4) W 27-14 H The Hun School NJ (1-1 D4)
Sep 21 (W5) W 35-8 H University Prep (co-op) PA (3-2 D2)
Sep 28 (W6) H #74 Dover (4-1 D2 R7), pick: W by 12 (76%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #232 New Philadelphia (2-3 D3 R9), pick: W by 27 (94%)
Oct 12 (W8) H Erie PA, [W by 30, 96%]
Oct 19 (W9) H Cardinal O'Hara NY, [W by 37, 98%]
Oct 26 (W10) H #345 Hunting Valley University School (2-3 D3 R10), pick: W by 31 (97%)

Lists on which the team appears
Fantastic 50 Rankings

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#42 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 95
Projected record 9-1
29.37 Harbin points (divisor 95)
Projected #1 seed in R13 playoffs

Win probabilities:
7W-4%, 8W-34%, 9W-62%

Playoff chance
100% now (need 7-3), 99% home
100% with a win in next game, and 100% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
7W: 21.86 (17.38-27.06) 100% in, 88% home, proj. #3 (#1-#6)
8W: 25.03 (18.98-31.35) 100% in, 99% home, proj. #2 (#1-#6)
9W: 29.37 (22.89-34.58) 100% in, 100% home, proj. #1 (#1-#3)

Best realistic scenario
62% WWWWW 29.37 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#1, range #1-#3) Girard 13%

Worst realistic scenario
2.3% LLWWW 21.53 pts, 100% in, 86% home (#3, range #1-#6) Cuyahoga Valley Christian Academy 18%

Most likely other scenarios
24% LWWWW 24.45 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#2, range #1-#6) East Liverpool 14%
5.7% WLWWW 26.42 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#2, range #1-#4) Girard 15%
2.2% WWLWW 26.98 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#1, range #1-#4) East Liverpool 13%
(4% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 10: Canfield (5-0 D3 R9) over Poland Seminary (5-0 D4 R13)
Week 10: University Prep (co-op) PA (3-2 D2) over
Week 7: Erie PA (1-3 D1) over
Week 6: Akron St Vincent-St Mary (3-2 D3 R9) over Perry (4-1 D4 R13)
Week 9: New Philadelphia (2-3 D3 R9) over Zanesville (3-2 D3 R11)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
13% East Liverpool (3-2)
13% Girard (4-1)
12% Carrollton (3-2)
10% Wintersville Indian Creek (3-2)
9% Akron Buchtel (3-2)

Championship probabilities
49% Region 13 champ
25% Division 4 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 134.5 (3-1, #30, D4 #1) 99% (need 7-3), 98% home, proj. #1
W3: 134.5 (2-1, #30, D4 #1) 99% (need 6-4), 95% home, proj. #1
W2: 134.5 (1-1, #28, D4 #1) 97% (bubble if 6-4), 82% home, proj. #1
W1: 134.5 (0-1, #23, D4 #1) 95% (bubble if 6-4), 80% home, proj. #1
W0: 136.4 (0-0, #24, D4 #1) 99% (need 6-4), 98% home, proj. #1
Last year 146.0 (15-0)