Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#642 Warren Champion (0-5) 72.9

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#96 of 106 in Division V
#26 of 27 in Region 17
Eitel team page
Region 17 projections
Region 17 playoff probabilities
Region 17 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 25 (W1) L 15-18 A #538 Warren John F Kennedy (1-4 D7 R25), pick: L by 19 (82%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 0-35 A #535 Rittman (2-3 D7 R25), pick: L by 6 (63%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 7-56 H #192 McDonald (5-0 D6 R21), pick: L by 27 (92%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 10-44 H #226 Girard (4-1 D4 R13), pick: L by 29 (95%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 7-61 A #268 Leavittsburg LaBrae (5-0 D5 R17), pick: L by 32 (97%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #606 Newton Falls (4-1 D6 R21), pick: L by 6 (64%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #271 Youngstown Liberty (4-1 D6 R21), pick: L by 29 (96%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #599 Campbell Memorial (0-5 D6 R21), pick: L by 7 (65%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #439 Cortland Lakeview (1-4 D4 R13), pick: L by 25 (93%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #373 Brookfield (1-4 D6 R21), pick: L by 24 (92%)

Lists on which the team appears
Winning & losing streaks

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#27 of 106 in Division 5

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 1-9
1.90 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R17 playoffs

Win probabilities:
0W-32%, 1W-46%, 2W-19%, 3W-3%

Best realistic scenario
2.6% WLLWL 3.95 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
32% LLLLL 0.00 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
19% WLLLL 2.30 pts, out
19% LLWLL 0.80 pts, out
9.8% WLWLL 2.70 pts, out
4.4% LLLWL 2.05 pts, out
2.6% LLLLW 1.65 pts, out
2.2% LLWWL 2.85 pts, out
(9% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 73.4 (0-4, #641, D5 #97) out
W3: 73.9 (0-3, #638, D5 #98) out
W2: 75.0 (0-2, #630, D5 #97) out
W1: 78.8 (0-1, #607, D5 #94) 1% , proj. out
W0: 78.2 (0-0, #635, D5 #98) 1% , proj. out
Last year 71.2 (0-10)