Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#442 Wooster Triway (2-3) 94.7

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#59 of 106 in Division V
#19 of 27 in Region 17
Eitel team page
Region 17 projections
Region 17 playoff probabilities
Region 17 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 14-48 H #141 Millersburg West Holmes (5-0 D3 R9), pick: L by 3 (56%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 46-16 H #528 Smithville (1-4 D6 R21), pick: W by 5 (61%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 35-24 A #544 Apple Creek Waynedale (0-5 D5 R17), pick: W by 11 (73%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 7-47 A #363 Loudonville (3-2 D6 R22), pick: W by 7 (64%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 20-38 A #197 Akron Manchester (4-1 D5 R17), pick: L by 20 (87%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #353 Canal Fulton Northwest (2-3 D4 R13), pick: L by 3 (57%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #468 Navarre Fairless (2-3 D5 R17), pick: L by 5 (62%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #401 Massillon Tuslaw (2-3 D5 R17), pick: L by 4 (59%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #172 Cuyahoga Falls Cuyahoga Valley Christian Academy (4-1 D4 R13), pick: L by 17 (84%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #223 Orrville (4-1 D5 R17), pick: L by 13 (77%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#31 of 106 in Division 5

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 4-6
6.90 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R17 playoffs

Win probabilities:
2W-10%, 3W-33%, 4W-35%, 5W-18%, 6W-4%

Playoff chance
1% now
2% with a win in next game, and 1% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 9.50 (6.95-13.95) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 12.40 (10.45-15.30) 15% in, 0% home, proj. out

Best realistic scenario
2.1% WWLLW 10.00 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
11% LLLLL 2.40 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
12% LWLLL 4.10 pts, out
9.8% LWWLL 6.10 pts, out
9.6% LLWLL 4.45 pts, out
7.1% WWLLL 6.45 pts, out
7.0% WLLLL 4.75 pts, out
6.5% WWWLL 8.52 pts, out
(36% some other outcome)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
33% Akron Manchester (4-1)
21% Wickliffe (5-0)
15% Gates Mills Gilmour Academy (5-0)
9% Leavittsburg LaBrae (5-0)
6% Columbiana Crestview (3-2)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 94.0 (2-2, #448, D5 #58) 2% , proj. out
W3: 99.2 (2-1, #379, D5 #47) 14% (need 7-3), 3% home, proj. out
W2: 98.7 (1-1, #384, D5 #47) 15% (bubble if 7-3), 3% home, proj. out
W1: 93.4 (0-1, #464, D5 #66) 6% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 100.4 (0-0, #389, D5 #50) 27% (need 7-3), 10% home, proj. out
Last year 96.8 (5-5)