Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#95 Youngstown Cardinal Mooney (2-3) 123.5

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#7 of 106 in Division IV
#4 of 27 in Region 13
Eitel team page
Region 13 projections
Region 13 playoff probabilities
Region 13 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 45-22 H Football North (via St Joseph) ON (1-4 D3)
Aug 31 (W2) L 13-42 H #2 Akron Archbishop Hoban (5-0 D2 R5), pick: L by 21 (86%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 19-18 H #62 Columbus St Francis DeSales (3-2 D3 R11), pick: L by 8 (67%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 7-28 H #27 Akron St Vincent-St Mary (3-2 D3 R9), pick: W by 2 (55%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 6-8 H #86 Youngstown Boardman (4-1 D2 R5), pick: W by 9 (69%)
Sep 28 (W6) H West Toronto Prep (via Silverthorn CI) ON (0-4 D3) , no pick
Oct 05 (W7) A #104 Louisville (2-3 D3 R9), pick: W by 2 (55%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #45 Warren G Harding (3-2 D2 R5), pick: L by 4 (59%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #337 Youngstown Ursuline (0-5 D4 R13), pick: W by 23 (91%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #69 Austintown-Fitch (4-1 D1 R1), pick: W by 1 (50%)

Lists on which the team appears
Toughest schedules
Best teams in playoff danger

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#5 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 99
Projected record 5-5
13.05 Harbin points (divisor 99)
Projected out of R13 playoffs

Win probabilities:
3W-10%, 4W-31%, 5W-36%, 6W-19%, 7W-3%

Playoff chance
27% now (need 6-4), 2% home
31% with a win in next game, and 21% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
4W: 10.18 (5.13-17.40) 3% in, 0% home, proj. out
5W: 13.05 (7.90-20.58) 22% in, 1% home, proj. out
6W: 16.53 (11.78-22.14) 77% in, 3% home, proj. #7 (#3-out)
7W: 20.57 (17.64-24.35) 100% in, 37% home, proj. #5 (#3-#8)

Best realistic scenario
3.3% WWWWW 20.57 pts, 100% in, 37% home (#5, range #3-#8) Perry 25%

Worst realistic scenario
6.5% LLLWL 7.41 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
12% WWLWL 11.29 pts, 2% in (out, range #7-out) Steubenville 57%
12% WLLWL 8.56 pts, out
8.1% WWLWW 16.18 pts, 69% in, 1% home (#8, range #4-out) Steubenville 31%
7.6% WLLWW 13.05 pts, 14% in (out, range #6-out) Steubenville 43%
7.2% LWLWL 10.18 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
5.1% WWWWL 15.93 pts, 69% in, 1% home (#8, range #3-out) Poland Seminary 31%
(38% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 9: Weir WV (4-1 D4) over East Liverpool (3-2 D4 R13)
Week 8: Columbus St Francis DeSales (3-2 D3 R11) over Columbus Bishop Hartley (3-2 D3 R11)
Week 9: Leavittsburg LaBrae (5-0 D5 R17) over Girard (4-1 D4 R13)
Week 10: Youngstown Liberty (4-1 D6 R21) over Girard (4-1 D4 R13)
Week 10: Football North (via St Joseph) ON (1-4 D3) over Erie PA (1-3 D1)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
26% Steubenville (4-1)
25% Poland Seminary (5-0)
20% Perry (4-1)
16% Hubbard (5-0)
9% Cuyahoga Falls Cuyahoga Valley Christian Academy (4-1)

Championship probabilities
2.0% Region 13 champ
0.5% Division 4 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 127.2 (2-2, #60, D4 #4) 58% (need 6-4), 19% home, proj. #5
W3: 132.9 (2-1, #34, D4 #2) 86% (need 6-4), 57% home, proj. #4
W2: 125.5 (1-1, #68, D4 #3) 41% (bubble if 6-4), 19% home, proj. #7
W1: 126.7 (1-0, #62, D4 #2) 47% (bubble if 6-4), 25% home, proj. #5
W0: 128.7 (0-0, #58, D4 #2) 47% (bubble if 5-5), 24% home, proj. #7
Last year 132.5 (7-5)