Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#63 Bellville Clear Fork (5-0) 127.5

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#5 of 106 in Division IV
#2 of 26 in Region 14
Eitel team page
Region 14 projections
Region 14 playoff probabilities
Region 14 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 63-0 H #574 Fredericktown (1-4 D5 R19), pick: W by 20 (82%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 40-12 A #199 Bellevue (2-3 D4 R14), pick: W by 1 (50%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 49-10 A #240 Plain City Jonathan Alder (3-2 D4 R16), pick: W by 8 (67%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 42-14 H #202 Richwood North Union (4-1 D5 R18), pick: W by 17 (83%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 44-0 A #390 Delaware Buckeye Valley (1-4 D3 R11), pick: W by 27 (94%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #388 Caledonia River Valley (2-3 D4 R14), pick: W by 31 (97%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #389 Galion (3-2 D4 R14), pick: W by 23 (91%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #346 Ontario (3-2 D4 R14), pick: W by 23 (91%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #152 Marion Pleasant (5-0 D5 R18), pick: W by 9 (71%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #453 Marion Harding (1-4 D2 R6), pick: W by 28 (95%)

Lists on which the team appears
Best team performances

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#27 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 10-0
28.50 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #1 seed in R14 playoffs

Win probabilities:
8W-5%, 9W-33%, 10W-63%

Playoff chance
100% now (need 8-2), 99% home
100% with a win in next game, and 100% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
8W: 21.50 (18.00-25.60) 100% in, 88% home, proj. #3 (#1-#8)
9W: 24.60 (21.25-29.10) 100% in, 99% home, proj. #2 (#1-#5)
10W: 28.50 (25.65-31.45) 100% in, 100% home, proj. #1 (#1-#3)

Best realistic scenario
63% WWWWW 28.50 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#1, range #1-#3) Highland 14%

Worst realistic scenario
20% WWWLW 24.00 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#2, range #1-#5) Highland 15%

Most likely other scenarios
5.7% WWLWW 25.45 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#2, range #1-#4) Highland 16%
2.4% LWWWW 26.30 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#2, range #1-#3) Bryan 14%
2.3% WLWWW 25.80 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#2, range #1-#3) Highland 15%
(7% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 10: Wapakoneta (4-1 D3 R12) over St Marys Memorial (5-0 D4 R14)
Week 8: Celina (4-1 D3 R12) over St Marys Memorial (5-0 D4 R14)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
14% Marengo Highland (4-1)
11% Bryan (4-1)
10% Milan Edison (3-1)
9% Lorain Clearview (4-1)
8% Pepper Pike Orange (5-0)

Championship probabilities
36% Region 14 champ
9.7% Division 4 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 127.5 (4-0, #59, D4 #3) 99% (need 8-2), 97% home, proj. #1
W3: 123.8 (3-0, #85, D4 #5) 98% (need 7-3), 87% home, proj. #2
W2: 121.9 (2-0, #98, D4 #7) 98% (need 6-4), 86% home, proj. #2
W1: 115.2 (1-0, #157, D4 #14) 86% (need 6-4), 58% home, proj. #3
W0: 116.6 (0-0, #169, D4 #15) 71% (need 6-4), 47% home, proj. #2
Last year 125.3 (11-1)