Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#388 Caledonia River Valley (2-3) 98.2

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#54 of 106 in Division IV
#16 of 26 in Region 14
Eitel team page
Region 14 projections
Region 14 playoff probabilities
Region 14 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 16-17 H #518 Upper Sandusky (3-2 D5 R18), pick: W by 21 (84%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 42-7 A #512 Mansfield Madison Comprehensive (1-4 D3 R10), pick: L by 2 (55%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 8-41 A #237 Marengo Highland (4-1 D4 R14), pick: L by 8 (66%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 6-8 H #390 Delaware Buckeye Valley (1-4 D3 R11), pick: L by 1 (52%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 24-7 H #389 Galion (3-2 D4 R14), pick: L by 11 (73%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #63 Bellville Clear Fork (5-0 D4 R14), pick: L by 31 (97%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #346 Ontario (3-2 D4 R14), pick: L by 9 (69%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #152 Marion Pleasant (5-0 D5 R18), pick: L by 26 (94%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #453 Marion Harding (1-4 D2 R6), pick: L by 1 (51%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #202 Richwood North Union (4-1 D5 R18), pick: L by 17 (84%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#73 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 3-7
6.50 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R14 playoffs

Win probabilities:
2W-13%, 3W-41%, 4W-35%, 5W-9%

Playoff chance
1% now
9% with a win in next game, and 1% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 12.85 (10.40-17.20) 3% in, 0% home, proj. out

Best realistic scenario
2.8% LWWWL 12.80 pts, 1% in (out, range #7-out)

Worst realistic scenario
13% LLLLL 4.10 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
24% LLLWL 5.85 pts, out
20% LWLWL 8.85 pts, out
12% LWLLL 7.20 pts, out
5.6% LLLWW 9.50 pts, out
4.5% LWLWW 12.50 pts, 1% in (out, range #7-out)
3.4% LLWWL 10.10 pts, out
(15% some other outcome)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
42% St Marys Memorial (5-0)
33% Bellville Clear Fork (5-0)
10% Huron (4-1)
8% Pepper Pike Orange (5-0)
3% Kenton (3-2)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 92.8 (1-3, #459, D4 #71) 1% , proj. out
W3: 96.4 (1-2, #413, D4 #63) 1% , proj. out
W2: 99.6 (1-1, #370, D4 #54) 6% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 94.4 (0-1, #452, D4 #70) 3% (need 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 106.4 (0-0, #290, D4 #38) 27% (bubble if 6-4), 10% home, proj. out
Last year 104.4 (4-6)