Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#500 Delta (2-3) 89.1

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#62 of 110 in Division VI
#18 of 28 in Region 22
Eitel team page
Region 22 projections
Region 22 playoff probabilities
Region 22 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 7-41 H #166 McComb (5-0 D7 R26), pick: L by 14 (74%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 20-18 H #583 Toledo Rogers (0-5 D3 R10), pick: W by 6 (62%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 13-7 A #541 Defiance Tinora (1-4 D6 R22), pick: L by 6 (62%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 7-28 H #327 Hamler Patrick Henry (2-3 D7 R26), pick: W by 6 (64%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 7-51 H #168 Liberty Center (5-0 D5 R18), pick: L by 26 (93%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #429 Metamora Evergreen (3-2 D6 R22), pick: L by 5 (62%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #310 Bryan (4-1 D4 R14), pick: L by 18 (86%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #266 Archbold (4-1 D5 R18), pick: L by 27 (94%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #483 Swanton (2-3 D5 R18), pick: L by 6 (64%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #443 Wauseon (1-4 D4 R14), pick: L by 11 (74%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#21 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 3-7
4.55 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R22 playoffs

Win probabilities:
2W-16%, 3W-38%, 4W-32%, 5W-13%

Playoff chance
1% now (bubble if 6-4), 1% home
3% with a win in next game, and 1% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
4W: 6.80 (4.10-11.40) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
5W: 9.20 (6.50-13.05) 2% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 11.75 (9.60-14.70) 38% in, 1% home, proj. out

Best realistic scenario
2.0% WWLWL 9.75 pts, 3% in (out, range #7-out)

Worst realistic scenario
16% LLLLL 2.55 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
16% LLLWL 4.35 pts, out
8.0% LLLWW 5.90 pts, out
7.9% LLLLW 4.00 pts, out
7.5% WLLLL 4.80 pts, out
6.6% WLLWL 6.70 pts, out
4.5% LWLLL 5.70 pts, out
(32% some other outcome)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
18% Jeromesville Hillsdale (4-1)
17% Bucyrus Wynford (4-1)
14% Attica Seneca East (4-1)
14% Columbus Grove (3-2)
12% Gibsonburg (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 85.3 (2-2, #538, D6 #67) 1% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 91.4 (2-1, #479, D6 #50) 17% (bubble if 6-4), 5% home, proj. out
W2: 88.1 (1-1, #515, D6 #59) 4% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 86.1 (0-1, #545, D6 #68) 1% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 90.3 (0-0, #523, D6 #61) 4% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 84.4 (1-9)