Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#516 Fostoria (2-3) 87.6

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#71 of 106 in Division V
#21 of 27 in Region 18
Eitel team page
Region 18 projections
Region 18 playoff probabilities
Region 18 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 0-18 A #236 Oak Harbor (4-1 D5 R18), pick: L by 15 (77%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 13-45 H #372 Toledo Scott (4-1 D3 R10), pick: W by 3 (55%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 49-19 H #647 Oregon Cardinal Stritch Catholic (2-3 D6 R22), pick: W by 15 (79%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 6-45 A #311 Tontogany Otsego (3-2 D5 R18), pick: L by 21 (87%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 38-0 H #645 Elmore Woodmore (0-5 D6 R22), pick: W by 14 (79%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #276 Pemberville Eastwood (3-2 D5 R18), pick: L by 29 (95%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #279 Millbury Lake (3-2 D5 R18), pick: L by 21 (89%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #600 Bloomdale Elmwood (0-5 D5 R18), pick: W by 10 (72%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #432 Rossford (2-3 D5 R18), pick: L by 6 (63%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #109 Genoa Area (5-0 D5 R18), pick: L by 29 (96%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#59 of 106 in Division 5

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 3-7
3.50 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R18 playoffs

Win probabilities:
2W-14%, 3W-50%, 4W-30%, 5W-6%

Playoff chance
1% now
1% with a win in next game, and 0% with a loss

Best realistic scenario
2.2% LWWWL 8.25 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
14% LLLLL 2.65 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
40% LLWLL 3.25 pts, out
16% LLWWL 5.35 pts, out
5.9% LLLWL 4.50 pts, out
5.5% WLWLL 6.40 pts, out
5.1% LWWLL 6.15 pts, out
2.1% WLWWL 8.20 pts, out
(9% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 85.6 (1-3, #532, D5 #77) out
W3: 85.0 (1-2, #550, D5 #83) 1% , proj. out
W2: 82.0 (0-2, #579, D5 #87) out
W1: 88.1 (0-1, #519, D5 #76) 1% , proj. out
W0: 92.0 (0-0, #506, D5 #76) 3% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 95.6 (5-5)