Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#389 Galion (3-2) 98.1

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#55 of 106 in Division IV
#17 of 26 in Region 14
Eitel team page
Region 14 projections
Region 14 playoff probabilities
Region 14 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 37-13 H #616 Bucyrus (1-4 D5 R18), pick: W by 22 (86%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 35-26 A #383 Carey (3-2 D6 R22), pick: L by 1 (50%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 34-0 A #518 Upper Sandusky (3-2 D5 R18), pick: W by 8 (65%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 21-44 H #152 Marion Pleasant (5-0 D5 R18), pick: L by 2 (55%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 7-24 A #388 Caledonia River Valley (2-3 D4 R14), pick: W by 11 (73%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #453 Marion Harding (1-4 D2 R6), pick: W by 12 (76%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #63 Bellville Clear Fork (5-0 D4 R14), pick: L by 23 (91%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #202 Richwood North Union (4-1 D5 R18), pick: L by 2 (55%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #346 Ontario (3-2 D4 R14), pick: W by 4 (58%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #390 Delaware Buckeye Valley (1-4 D3 R11), pick: W by 6 (64%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#71 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 5-5
10.85 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R14 playoffs

Win probabilities:
3W-8%, 4W-30%, 5W-39%, 6W-20%, 7W-4%

Playoff chance
4% now (bubble if 7-3), 1% home
5% with a win in next game, and 2% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 10.85 (8.25-15.15) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 13.45 (10.90-19.20) 8% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 16.60 (14.80-20.90) 64% in, 3% home, proj. #8 (#3-out)

Best realistic scenario
2.8% WLWWW 16.30 pts, 59% in (#8, range #5-out) Clear Fork 40%

Worst realistic scenario
7.6% LLLLL 6.55 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
14% WLLLL 8.20 pts, out
13% WLLLW 9.90 pts, out
12% WLLWL 10.95 pts, out
9.6% WLLWW 12.65 pts, 1% in (out, range #7-out)
7.0% LLLLW 8.25 pts, out
6.1% LLLWL 9.30 pts, out
(29% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 10: Beachwood (4-1 D5 R17) over Pepper Pike Orange (5-0 D4 R14)
Week 10: Carey (3-2 D6 R22) over North Robinson Colonel Crawford (3-2 D6 R22)
Week 7: Portsmouth (3-2 D5 R20) over Chesapeake (3-2 D5 R19)
Week 6: Toledo Central Catholic (5-0 D2 R6) over Toledo Whitmer (4-1 D1 R2)
Week 6: Perrysburg (1-4 D2 R6) over Bowling Green (2-3 D3 R10)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
39% St Marys Memorial (5-0)
33% Bellville Clear Fork (5-0)
9% Kenton (3-2)
7% Pepper Pike Orange (5-0)
6% Huron (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 105.1 (3-1, #294, D4 #40) 24% (bubble if 7-3), 2% home, proj. out
W3: 109.6 (3-0, #229, D4 #29) 70% (need 7-3), 25% home, proj. #7
W2: 106.7 (2-0, #272, D4 #36) 52% (bubble if 6-4), 17% home, proj. out
W1: 101.2 (1-0, #348, D4 #46) 25% (bubble if 6-4), 6% home, proj. out
W0: 102.5 (0-0, #357, D4 #52) 15% (need 7-3), 4% home, proj. out
Last year 101.5 (5-5)