Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions

#109 Genoa Area (5-0) 121.6

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#3 of 106 in Division V
#1 of 27 in Region 18
Eitel team page
Region 18 projections
Region 18 playoff probabilities
Region 18 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 28-0 A #257 Columbus Bishop Ready (2-3 D5 R19), pick: W by 3 (56%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 34-14 H #236 Oak Harbor (4-1 D5 R18), pick: W by 11 (72%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 34-12 H #369 Sandusky Perkins (1-4 D3 R10), pick: W by 24 (90%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 34-27 H #279 Millbury Lake (3-2 D5 R18), pick: W by 21 (88%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 34-14 H #311 Tontogany Otsego (3-2 D5 R18), pick: W by 17 (84%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #600 Bloomdale Elmwood (0-5 D5 R18), pick: W by 34 (98%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #645 Elmore Woodmore (0-5 D6 R22), pick: W by 36 (98%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #432 Rossford (2-3 D5 R18), pick: W by 28 (95%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #276 Pemberville Eastwood (3-2 D5 R18), pick: W by 2 (54%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #516 Fostoria (2-3 D5 R18), pick: W by 29 (96%)

Lists on which the team appears
Best team performances
Toughest schedules

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#10 of 106 in Division 5

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 10-0
23.10 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #1 seed in R18 playoffs

Win probabilities:
8W-2%, 9W-26%, 10W-72%

Playoff chance
100% now (need 8-2), 98% home
100% with a win in next game

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
8W: 17.70 (15.05-20.40) 100% in, 55% home, proj. #4 (#1-#8)
9W: 20.15 (16.75-24.35) 100% in, 95% home, proj. #3 (#1-#7)
10W: 23.10 (20.10-26.20) 100% in, 100% home, proj. #1 (#1-#4)

Best realistic scenario
72% WWWWW 23.10 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#1, range #1-#4) Anna 19%

Worst realistic scenario
1.2% WWLLW 17.50 pts, 100% in, 47% home (#5, range #1-#8) Miami East 20%

Most likely other scenarios
19% WWWLW 19.80 pts, 100% in, 94% home (#3, range #1-#7) Miami East 15%
3.8% WWLWW 20.85 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#2, range #1-#5) Anna 15%
2.0% WWWWL 21.35 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#2, range #1-#4) Anna 16%
0.5% LWWWW 22.00 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#2, range #1-#3) Anna 16%
0.4% WWWLL 18.25 pts, 100% in, 59% home (#4, range #2-#8) Archbold 20%

Teams to root for
Week 9: Bellville Clear Fork (5-0 D4 R14) over Marion Pleasant (5-0 D5 R18)
Week 6: Columbus Bishop Ready (2-3 D5 R19) over Amanda-Clearcreek (5-0 D5 R19)
Week 9: Bryan (4-1 D4 R14) over Liberty Center (5-0 D5 R18)
Week 9: Oak Harbor (4-1 D5 R18) over Shelby (3-2 D4 R14)
Week 8: Oak Harbor (4-1 D5 R18) over Milan Edison (3-1 D4 R14)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
17% Anna (3-2)
14% Millbury Lake (3-2)
10% Archbold (4-1)
10% Richwood North Union (4-1)
9% Oak Harbor (4-1)

Championship probabilities
37% Region 18 champ
14% Division 5 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 119.5 (4-0, #128, D5 #5) 98% (need 8-2), 77% home, proj. #4
W3: 121.0 (3-0, #108, D5 #3) 95% (need 8-2), 64% home, proj. #4
W2: 120.3 (2-0, #115, D5 #2) 91% (need 8-2), 59% home, proj. #3
W1: 115.6 (1-0, #152, D5 #8) 80% (bubble if 7-3), 47% home, proj. #3
W0: 112.5 (0-0, #220, D5 #11) 59% (need 7-3), 30% home, proj. #3
Last year 116.5 (8-3)