Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#183 Huron (4-1) 113.6

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#18 of 106 in Division IV
#4 of 26 in Region 14
Eitel team page
Region 14 projections
Region 14 playoff probabilities
Region 14 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 31-7 H #369 Sandusky Perkins (1-4 D3 R10), pick: W by 3 (55%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 7-35 A #73 Sandusky (5-0 D3 R10), pick: L by 8 (66%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 27-26 H #269 St Bernard Roger Bacon (2-3 D4 R16), pick: W by 3 (57%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 21-0 A #486 Ravenna Southeast (2-3 D4 R13), pick: W by 24 (91%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 31-14 H #372 Toledo Scott (4-1 D3 R10), pick: W by 13 (78%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #267 Shelby (3-2 D4 R14), pick: W by 2 (55%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #236 Oak Harbor (4-1 D5 R18), pick: W by 8 (68%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #491 Vermilion (2-3 D4 R14), pick: W by 22 (90%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #284 Port Clinton (2-3 D4 R14), pick: W by 6 (64%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #230 Milan Edison (3-1 D4 R14), pick: W by 4 (59%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#33 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 99
Projected record 7-3
18.60 Harbin points (divisor 99)
Projected #5 seed in R14 playoffs

Win probabilities:
5W-3%, 6W-16%, 7W-35%, 8W-33%, 9W-13%

Playoff chance
88% now (bubble if 6-4), 47% home
96% with a win in next game, and 75% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 12.80 (9.37-16.19) 7% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 15.63 (12.09-20.22) 50% in, 1% home, proj. out
7W: 18.60 (14.86-22.94) 96% in, 21% home, proj. #6 (#2-out)
8W: 21.73 (17.89-26.32) 99% in, 82% home, proj. #3 (#1-out)
9W: 24.75 (21.87-28.03) 100% in, 99% home, proj. #3 (#1-#5)

Best realistic scenario
13% WWWWW 24.75 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#3, range #1-#5) Highland 20%

Worst realistic scenario
2.1% LLWLL 12.40 pts, 1% in (out, range #7-out)

Most likely other scenarios
10% WLWWW 21.17 pts, 100% in, 79% home (#4, range #2-#8) Kenton 25%
7.8% LWWWW 21.63 pts, 99% in, 83% home (#4, range #1-out) Kenton 25%
7.4% WWWLW 22.28 pts, 100% in, 92% home (#3, range #1-#7) Kenton 20%
7.3% WWWWL 21.73 pts, 100% in, 75% home (#4, range #1-#8) Kenton 25%
6.6% LLWWW 17.94 pts, 95% in, 12% home (#6, range #3-out) Kenton 23%
6.0% WLWWL 17.99 pts, 95% in, 11% home (#6, range #3-out) Clear Fork 22%
(40% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 7: Toledo Scott (4-1 D3 R10) over Toledo Start (1-4 D1 R2)
Week 8: St Bernard Roger Bacon (2-3 D4 R16) over Dayton Carroll (4-1 D3 R12)
Week 8: Oak Harbor (4-1 D5 R18) over Milan Edison (3-1 D4 R14)
Week 8: Ravenna Southeast (2-3 D4 R13) over Youngstown Valley Christian School (4-1 D7 R25)
Week 10: Beachwood (4-1 D5 R17) over Pepper Pike Orange (5-0 D4 R14)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
20% Kenton (3-2)
16% Pepper Pike Orange (5-0)
14% Marengo Highland (4-1)
10% Milan Edison (3-1)
9% St Marys Memorial (5-0)

Championship probabilities
2.8% Region 14 champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 113.2 (3-1, #188, D4 #17) 79% (bubble if 6-4), 41% home, proj. #5
W3: 112.1 (2-1, #200, D4 #21) 70% (bubble if 6-4), 28% home, proj. #5
W2: 108.7 (1-1, #239, D4 #29) 47% (bubble if 6-4), 15% home, proj. #8
W1: 112.7 (1-0, #189, D4 #21) 69% (bubble if 6-4), 34% home, proj. #6
W0: 108.8 (0-0, #265, D4 #30) 36% (bubble if 6-4), 15% home, proj. out
Last year 107.5 (5-5)