Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#476 La Grange Keystone (1-4) 91.4

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#76 of 106 in Division IV
#23 of 26 in Region 14
Eitel team page
Region 14 projections
Region 14 playoff probabilities
Region 14 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 6-27 H #151 Bay Village Bay (5-0 D3 R10), pick: L by 23 (86%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 32-38 A #395 Lodi Cloverleaf (2-3 D3 R9), pick: L by 7 (64%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 6-48 H #124 Creston Norwayne (4-1 D6 R21), pick: L by 19 (84%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 0-41 A #253 Columbia Station Columbia (3-2 D6 R21), pick: L by 18 (84%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 47-6 H #662 Brooklyn (2-3 D6 R21), pick: W by 21 (88%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #378 Sullivan Black River (3-2 D5 R17), pick: L by 7 (67%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #622 Sheffield Brookside (1-4 D4 R14), pick: W by 14 (80%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #643 Wellington (1-4 D6 R21), pick: W by 16 (83%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #181 Medina Buckeye (4-1 D3 R9), pick: L by 23 (91%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #475 Oberlin Firelands (2-3 D4 R14), pick: L by 6 (64%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#26 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 4-6
6.80 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R14 playoffs

Win probabilities:
2W-9%, 3W-35%, 4W-41%, 5W-13%, 6W-1%

Playoff chance
1% now
1% with a win in next game, and 0% with a loss

Best realistic scenario
2.3% LWWWW 10.75 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
4.0% LLWLL 2.70 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
24% LWWLW 6.45 pts, out
21% LWWLL 4.15 pts, out
9.8% WWWLW 9.50 pts, out
9.4% WWWLL 6.95 pts, out
4.8% LLWLW 5.00 pts, out
4.6% LWLLW 5.25 pts, out
(20% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 91.0 (0-4, #487, D4 #79) 1% , proj. out
W3: 92.5 (0-3, #464, D4 #75) 1% , proj. out
W2: 94.6 (0-2, #435, D4 #67) 1% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 96.3 (0-1, #418, D4 #62) 9% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 98.1 (0-0, #418, D4 #66) 9% (bubble if 7-3), 2% home, proj. out
Last year 97.9 (4-6)