Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#529 Lima Bath (0-5) 86.0

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#86 of 106 in Division IV
#25 of 26 in Region 14
Eitel team page
Region 14 projections
Region 14 playoff probabilities
Region 14 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 14-21 A #493 Harrod Allen East (2-3 D6 R22), pick: W by 6 (61%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 14-53 A #252 Elida (2-3 D3 R12), pick: L by 15 (78%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 10-35 H #265 Ottawa-Glandorf (2-3 D5 R18), pick: L by 27 (92%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 14-50 A #140 Celina (4-1 D3 R12), pick: L by 29 (95%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 7-28 H #274 Defiance (3-2 D3 R10), pick: L by 19 (86%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #91 Wapakoneta (4-1 D3 R12), pick: L by 33 (97%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #59 St Marys Memorial (5-0 D4 R14), pick: L by 32 (97%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #186 Van Wert (3-2 D4 R14), pick: L by 24 (92%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #330 Lima Shawnee (1-4 D3 R12), pick: L by 21 (89%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #98 Kenton (3-2 D4 R14), pick: L by 32 (97%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#18 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 0-10
0.00 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R14 playoffs

Win probabilities:
0W-77%, 1W-21%, 2W-2%

Best realistic scenario
0.3% LLLWW 5.20 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
77% LLLLL 0.00 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
13% LLLWL 1.45 pts, out
5.4% LLWLL 3.10 pts, out
1.7% LLLLW 3.75 pts, out
0.9% WLLLL 4.20 pts, out
0.8% LLWWL 4.55 pts, out
0.6% LWLLL 4.75 pts, out

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 85.9 (0-4, #528, D4 #88) out
W3: 85.6 (0-3, #541, D4 #88) out
W2: 85.8 (0-2, #544, D4 #91) 1% , proj. out
W1: 90.2 (0-1, #490, D4 #76) 1% , proj. out
W0: 97.9 (0-0, #422, D4 #67) 2% , proj. out
Last year 92.0 (1-9)