Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#370 Lorain Clearview (4-1) 99.5

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#52 of 106 in Division IV
#15 of 26 in Region 14
Eitel team page
Region 14 projections
Region 14 playoff probabilities
Region 14 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 0-33 H #93 Amherst Steele (5-0 D2 R6), pick: L by 13 (74%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 45-6 H #603 Painesville Harvey (0-5 D3 R9), pick: W by 14 (75%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 12-8 H #496 Cleveland John Hay (1-4 D3 R10), pick: W by 7 (65%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 49-0 H #643 Wellington (1-4 D6 R21), pick: W by 27 (93%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 44-7 A #622 Sheffield Brookside (1-4 D4 R14), pick: W by 19 (86%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #576 Oberlin (2-3 D6 R21), pick: W by 14 (79%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #253 Columbia Station Columbia (3-2 D6 R21), pick: L by 8 (69%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #391 Fairview Park Fairview (1-4 D4 R14), pick: W by 4 (60%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #445 Rocky River Lutheran West (4-1 D4 R14), pick: W by 8 (68%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #662 Brooklyn (2-3 D6 R21), pick: W by 24 (92%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#99 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 7-3
13.25 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R14 playoffs

Win probabilities:
5W-3%, 6W-16%, 7W-39%, 8W-34%, 9W-9%

Playoff chance
28% now (bubble if 8-2), 1% home
30% with a win in next game, and 14% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 10.60 (7.75-14.95) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 13.25 (9.45-17.65) 6% in, 0% home, proj. out
8W: 15.85 (13.45-19.15) 49% in, 1% home, proj. out
9W: 18.75 (16.75-20.80) 97% in, 7% home, proj. #6 (#3-out)

Best realistic scenario
9.3% WWWWW 18.75 pts, 97% in, 7% home (#6, range #3-out) Clear Fork 19%

Worst realistic scenario
8.5% WLLLW 9.95 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
18% WLWWW 15.45 pts, 39% in (out, range #5-out) Clear Fork 44%
17% WLLWW 13.35 pts, 5% in (out, range #6-out) St Marys Memorial 48%
9.0% WWLWW 16.55 pts, 70% in, 1% home (#8, range #4-out) Clear Fork 35%
8.9% WLWLW 12.10 pts, 2% in (out, range #7-out)
4.7% WWLLW 13.30 pts, 3% in (out, range #7-out)
4.7% WWWLW 15.50 pts, 34% in (out, range #6-out) Clear Fork 42%
(20% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 7: Cleveland John Hay (1-4 D3 R10) over Cleveland Rhodes (1-4 D1 R1)
Week 6: Archbold (4-1 D5 R18) over Bryan (4-1 D4 R14)
Week 9: Liberty Center (5-0 D5 R18) over Bryan (4-1 D4 R14)
Week 8: Oak Harbor (4-1 D5 R18) over Milan Edison (3-1 D4 R14)
Week 10: Galion Northmor (5-0 D6 R23) over Marengo Highland (4-1 D4 R14)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
33% Bellville Clear Fork (5-0)
31% St Marys Memorial (5-0)
10% Pepper Pike Orange (5-0)
10% Huron (4-1)
9% Kenton (3-2)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 98.6 (3-1, #380, D4 #56) 19% (bubble if 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 99.7 (2-1, #370, D4 #54) 25% (bubble if 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 97.6 (1-1, #398, D4 #59) 13% (need 9-1), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 95.4 (0-1, #433, D4 #65) 16% (bubble if 8-2), 2% home, proj. out
W0: 99.8 (0-0, #397, D4 #60) 29% (need 8-2), 8% home, proj. out
Last year 105.4 (9-2)