Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#346 Ontario (3-2) 101.9

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#50 of 106 in Division IV
#14 of 26 in Region 14
Eitel team page
Region 14 projections
Region 14 playoff probabilities
Region 14 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 14-7 H #359 Lexington (1-4 D3 R10), pick: L by 2 (54%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 16-47 H #237 Marengo Highland (4-1 D4 R14), pick: W by 4 (57%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 14-6 A #378 Sullivan Black River (3-2 D5 R17), pick: L by 4 (57%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 28-7 H #453 Marion Harding (1-4 D2 R6), pick: L by 1 (50%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 14-47 A #202 Richwood North Union (4-1 D5 R18), pick: L by 7 (66%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #390 Delaware Buckeye Valley (1-4 D3 R11), pick: W by 7 (66%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #388 Caledonia River Valley (2-3 D4 R14), pick: W by 9 (69%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #63 Bellville Clear Fork (5-0 D4 R14), pick: L by 23 (91%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #389 Galion (3-2 D4 R14), pick: L by 4 (58%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #152 Marion Pleasant (5-0 D5 R18), pick: L by 18 (85%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#35 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 5-5
11.95 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R14 playoffs

Win probabilities:
3W-6%, 4W-25%, 5W-39%, 6W-25%, 7W-5%

Playoff chance
12% now (need 7-3), 1% home
15% with a win in next game, and 7% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 11.95 (8.40-17.90) 2% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 14.65 (11.50-20.85) 25% in, 1% home, proj. out
7W: 18.40 (15.50-22.80) 94% in, 9% home, proj. #6 (#2-out)

Best realistic scenario
2.9% WWLWW 18.00 pts, 93% in, 3% home (#7, range #3-out) Clear Fork 27%

Worst realistic scenario
6.3% LLLLL 7.55 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
15% WWLWL 13.80 pts, 7% in (out, range #6-out) Clear Fork 48%
12% WLLWL 11.70 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
11% WWLLL 11.30 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
9.5% WLLLL 9.20 pts, out
8.9% LWLWL 12.10 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
7.3% LLLWL 10.00 pts, out
(27% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 6: Archbold (4-1 D5 R18) over Bryan (4-1 D4 R14)
Week 8: Metamora Evergreen (3-2 D6 R22) over Wauseon (1-4 D4 R14)
Week 6: Lexington (1-4 D3 R10) over Mansfield (2-3 D3 R10)
Week 10: Fremont Ross (2-3 D2 R6) over Toledo St Francis de Sales (3-2 D2 R6)
Week 10: Galion Northmor (5-0 D6 R23) over Marengo Highland (4-1 D4 R14)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
32% Bellville Clear Fork (5-0)
29% St Marys Memorial (5-0)
10% Kenton (3-2)
9% Pepper Pike Orange (5-0)
9% Huron (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 103.0 (3-1, #326, D4 #44) 19% (need 7-3), 3% home, proj. out
W3: 98.1 (2-1, #392, D4 #59) 5% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 95.9 (1-1, #416, D4 #60) 3% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 100.3 (1-0, #364, D4 #49) 25% (need 6-4), 7% home, proj. #8
W0: 97.9 (0-0, #426, D4 #69) 6% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 96.1 (2-8)