Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#612 Marion Elgin (1-4) 76.9

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#87 of 110 in Division VI
#22 of 27 in Region 23
Eitel team page
Region 23 projections
Region 23 playoff probabilities
Region 23 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 36-47 H #299 Galion Northmor (5-0 D6 R23), pick: L by 14 (75%)
Sep 01 (W2) L 20-42 A #485 Frankfort Adena (3-1 D6 R23), pick: L by 6 (62%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 40-24 A #689 Mount Gilead (0-5 D6 R23), pick: W by 3 (55%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 44-48 A #581 De Graff Riverside (2-3 D7 R28), pick: L by 5 (61%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 44-63 H #428 Sidney Lehman Catholic (3-2 D7 R28), pick: L by 14 (78%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #705 Mt Victory Ridgemont (1-4 D7 R28), pick: W by 22 (91%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #646 Dola Hardin Northern (2-3 D7 R28), pick: W by 11 (75%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #650 Waynesfield-Goshen (3-2 D7 R28), pick: W by 9 (69%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #640 McGuffey Upper Scioto Valley (2-3 D7 R28), pick: W by 6 (64%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #460 Lima Perry (4-1 D6 R24), pick: L by 11 (74%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#57 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 99
Projected record 4-6
4.99 Harbin points (divisor 99)
Projected out of R23 playoffs

Win probabilities:
2W-8%, 3W-27%, 4W-39%, 5W-22%, 6W-3%

Playoff chance
1% now
1% with a win in next game, and 0% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 9.73 (8.66-11.19) 4% in, 0% home, proj. out

Best realistic scenario
3.3% WWWWW 9.73 pts, 4% in (out, range #7-out)

Worst realistic scenario
5.3% WLLLL 1.46 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
14% WWWWL 6.75 pts, out
12% WWWLL 5.34 pts, out
11% WLWWL 4.99 pts, out
9.7% WLWLL 3.57 pts, out
7.7% WWLWL 4.63 pts, out
6.1% WWLLL 3.22 pts, out
(31% some other outcome)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
31% Beverly Fort Frye (4-0)
31% Galion Northmor (5-0)
23% Columbus Grandview Heights (5-0)
15% Bainbridge Paint Valley (5-0)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 79.1 (1-3, #597, D6 #83) 1% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 80.8 (1-2, #588, D6 #79) 3% , proj. out
W2: 75.8 (0-2, #625, D6 #87) 1% , proj. out
W1: 79.6 (0-1, #597, D6 #81) 6% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 81.4 (0-0, #608, D6 #84) 8% (need 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 80.8 (7-3)