Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#429 Metamora Evergreen (3-2) 95.8

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#44 of 110 in Division VI
#12 of 28 in Region 22
Eitel team page
Region 22 projections
Region 22 playoff probabilities
Region 22 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 21-37 A #311 Tontogany Otsego (3-2 D5 R18), pick: L by 19 (81%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 48-0 H #673 Montpelier (0-5 D6 R22), pick: W by 22 (87%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 54-0 A #669 Toledo Ottawa Hills (1-4 D6 R22), pick: W by 13 (75%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 7-37 A #168 Liberty Center (5-0 D5 R18), pick: L by 24 (90%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 40-20 H #483 Swanton (2-3 D5 R18), pick: L by 2 (55%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #500 Delta (2-3 D6 R22), pick: W by 5 (62%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #327 Hamler Patrick Henry (2-3 D7 R26), pick: L by 6 (63%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #443 Wauseon (1-4 D4 R14), pick: L by 7 (66%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #266 Archbold (4-1 D5 R18), pick: L by 22 (90%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #310 Bryan (4-1 D4 R14), pick: L by 14 (80%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#49 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 5-5
9.25 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R22 playoffs

Win probabilities:
3W-5%, 4W-24%, 5W-37%, 6W-25%, 7W-8%

Playoff chance
19% now (bubble if 6-4), 4% home
23% with a win in next game, and 9% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 9.25 (6.50-12.90) 2% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 11.70 (8.75-15.15) 37% in, 1% home, proj. out
7W: 14.30 (12.10-17.00) 97% in, 39% home, proj. #5 (#1-out)

Best realistic scenario
2.0% WLWWW 14.75 pts, 100% in, 60% home (#4, range #1-#8) Northwood 18%

Worst realistic scenario
5.0% LLLLL 4.80 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
12% WLLLL 6.65 pts, out
11% WLWLL 8.20 pts, out
5.9% WLLLW 9.95 pts, 1% in (out, range #7-out)
5.9% WLWLW 11.50 pts, 25% in (out, range #6-out) Wynford 21%
5.1% LLWLL 6.25 pts, out
5.0% WWLLL 8.95 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
(48% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 7: Toledo Ottawa Hills (1-4 D6 R22) over Oregon Cardinal Stritch Catholic (2-3 D6 R22)
Week 7: Swanton (2-3 D5 R18) over Wauseon (1-4 D4 R14)
Week 9: Akron Manchester (4-1 D5 R17) over Loudonville (3-2 D6 R22)
Week 6: Aurora (4-1 D3 R9) over Barberton (5-0 D2 R7)
Week 7: Spencerville (4-1 D6 R24) over Columbus Grove (3-2 D6 R22)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
15% Jeromesville Hillsdale (4-1)
13% Gibsonburg (4-1)
13% Attica Seneca East (4-1)
13% Columbus Grove (3-2)
12% Bucyrus Wynford (4-1)

Championship probabilities
0.8% Region 22 champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 89.2 (2-2, #502, D6 #60) 7% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 90.0 (2-1, #498, D6 #61) 22% (need 6-4), 7% home, proj. out
W2: 89.4 (1-1, #503, D6 #55) 9% (need 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 88.4 (0-1, #514, D6 #63) 4% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 91.1 (0-0, #516, D6 #59) 10% (need 6-4), 3% home, proj. out
Last year 94.8 (4-6)