Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#279 Millbury Lake (3-2) 106.5

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#27 of 106 in Division V
#11 of 27 in Region 18
Eitel team page
Region 18 projections
Region 18 playoff probabilities
Region 18 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 20-13 A #327 Hamler Patrick Henry (2-3 D7 R26), pick: W by 5 (60%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 36-22 H #406 Northwood (4-1 D6 R22), pick: W by 15 (77%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 14-23 A #266 Archbold (4-1 D5 R18), pick: L by 10 (70%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 27-34 A #109 Genoa Area (5-0 D5 R18), pick: L by 21 (88%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 26-0 H #600 Bloomdale Elmwood (0-5 D5 R18), pick: W by 27 (94%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #432 Rossford (2-3 D5 R18), pick: W by 14 (80%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #516 Fostoria (2-3 D5 R18), pick: W by 21 (89%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #311 Tontogany Otsego (3-2 D5 R18), pick: L by 1 (50%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #645 Elmore Woodmore (0-5 D6 R22), pick: W by 30 (96%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #276 Pemberville Eastwood (3-2 D5 R18), pick: L by 9 (71%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#23 of 106 in Division 5

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 7-3
14.95 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #7 seed in R18 playoffs

Win probabilities:
5W-9%, 6W-32%, 7W-40%, 8W-18%

Playoff chance
54% now (need 7-3), 6% home
62% with a win in next game, and 33% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 9.85 (7.65-13.65) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 12.30 (9.80-16.20) 15% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 14.95 (12.75-18.35) 77% in, 1% home, proj. #7 (#3-out)
8W: 17.85 (15.65-19.70) 99% in, 31% home, proj. #5 (#2-out)

Best realistic scenario
18% WWWWW 17.85 pts, 99% in, 31% home (#5, range #2-out) Miami East 23%

Worst realistic scenario
5.7% LWLWL 9.45 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
16% WWLWW 14.90 pts, 75% in, 1% home (#8, range #4-out) Genoa Area 33%
15% WWWWL 14.55 pts, 68% in, 1% home (#8, range #4-out) Genoa Area 34%
13% WWLWL 11.65 pts, 3% in (out, range #7-out) Genoa Area 64%
7.0% LWWWW 15.65 pts, 93% in, 2% home (#7, range #3-out) Genoa Area 29%
6.6% LWLWW 12.70 pts, 21% in (out, range #6-out) Genoa Area 46%
6.1% LWWWL 12.40 pts, 18% in (out, range #6-out) Genoa Area 52%
(13% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 7: Huron (4-1 D4 R14) over Oak Harbor (4-1 D5 R18)
Week 10: Hamler Patrick Henry (2-3 D7 R26) over Liberty Center (5-0 D5 R18)
Week 9: Hamler Patrick Henry (2-3 D7 R26) over Wauseon (1-4 D4 R14)
Week 8: Hamler Patrick Henry (2-3 D7 R26) over Bryan (4-1 D4 R14)
Week 9: Shelby (3-2 D4 R14) over Oak Harbor (4-1 D5 R18)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
25% Genoa Area (5-0)
21% Liberty Center (5-0)
17% Marion Pleasant (5-0)
12% Casstown Miami East (4-1)
11% Archbold (4-1)

Championship probabilities
1.2% Region 18 champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 105.3 (2-2, #291, D5 #26) 21% (need 8-2), 2% home, proj. out
W3: 101.1 (2-1, #348, D5 #42) 12% (need 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 103.8 (2-0, #320, D5 #30) 26% (need 8-2), 7% home, proj. out
W1: 102.7 (1-0, #324, D5 #32) 29% (bubble if 7-3), 9% home, proj. out
W0: 103.7 (0-0, #339, D5 #32) 23% (bubble if 7-3), 7% home, proj. out
Last year 104.2 (6-4)