Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#579 Paulding (1-4) 80.5

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#86 of 106 in Division V
#24 of 27 in Region 18
Eitel team page
Region 18 projections
Region 18 playoff probabilities
Region 18 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 25-33 A #434 Haviland Wayne Trace (3-2 D6 R22), pick: L by 17 (80%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 6-46 A #425 Sherwood Fairview (3-2 D6 R22), pick: L by 22 (86%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 7-14 H #580 Antwerp (3-2 D7 R26), pick: W by 5 (61%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 16-49 A #281 Columbus Grove (3-2 D6 R22), pick: L by 19 (86%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 28-17 H #613 Bluffton (1-4 D6 R22), pick: L by 3 (58%)
Sep 29 (W6) A #570 Delphos Jefferson (1-4 D6 R24), pick: L by 12 (75%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #493 Harrod Allen East (2-3 D6 R22), pick: L by 13 (77%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #458 Ada (2-3 D6 R22), pick: L by 19 (87%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #247 Spencerville (4-1 D6 R24), pick: L by 28 (95%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #285 Convoy Crestview (4-1 D7 R28), pick: L by 31 (96%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#68 of 106 in Division 5

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 2-8
2.70 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R18 playoffs

Win probabilities:
1W-26%, 2W-43%, 3W-25%, 4W-5%

Best realistic scenario
2.4% WWWLL 5.95 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
26% LLLLL 1.15 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
21% WLLLL 2.30 pts, out
9.5% LWLLL 2.85 pts, out
9.3% LLWLL 3.05 pts, out
7.6% WWLLL 4.00 pts, out
7.5% WLWLL 3.85 pts, out
3.3% LWWLL 4.80 pts, out
(13% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 75.6 (0-4, #625, D5 #94) out
W3: 75.8 (0-3, #624, D5 #95) out
W2: 80.0 (0-2, #591, D5 #90) 1% , proj. out
W1: 81.3 (0-1, #588, D5 #88) 1% , proj. out
W0: 81.9 (0-0, #603, D5 #92) 1% , proj. out
Last year 80.9 (1-9)