Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#284 Port Clinton (2-3) 106.3

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#38 of 106 in Division IV
#11 of 26 in Region 14
Eitel team page
Region 14 projections
Region 14 playoff probabilities
Region 14 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 21-48 A #73 Sandusky (5-0 D3 R10), pick: L by 13 (73%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 47-33 A #432 Rossford (2-3 D5 R18), pick: W by 3 (57%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 7-24 H #146 Norwalk (4-1 D3 R10), pick: L by 1 (52%)
Sep 15 (W4) W 32-0 A #484 Coshocton (1-4 D5 R19), pick: W by 4 (60%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 0-7 H #170 Clyde (3-2 D3 R10), pick: L by 8 (68%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #230 Milan Edison (3-1 D4 R14), pick: L by 7 (65%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #491 Vermilion (2-3 D4 R14), pick: W by 14 (79%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #267 Shelby (3-2 D4 R14), pick: L by 3 (56%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #183 Huron (4-1 D4 R14), pick: L by 6 (64%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #236 Oak Harbor (4-1 D5 R18), pick: L by 1 (50%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#12 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 99
Projected record 5-5
12.55 Harbin points (divisor 99)
Projected out of R14 playoffs

Win probabilities:
3W-15%, 4W-33%, 5W-33%, 6W-15%, 7W-3%

Playoff chance
12% now (bubble if 6-4), 1% home
22% with a win in next game, and 5% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
4W: 9.27 (5.99-13.67) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
5W: 12.55 (9.88-16.69) 2% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 15.98 (13.36-19.62) 56% in, 1% home, proj. #8 (#3-out)
7W: 19.41 (17.54-21.38) 99% in, 32% home, proj. #5 (#2-out)

Best realistic scenario
2.6% WWWWW 19.41 pts, 99% in, 32% home (#5, range #2-out) Kenton 25%

Worst realistic scenario
9.9% LWLLL 5.64 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
11% LWWLL 9.02 pts, out
6.6% LWWLW 12.50 pts, 1% in (out, range #6-out)
6.6% WWWLL 11.89 pts, out
6.1% LWLLW 9.48 pts, out
6.1% LWWWL 12.75 pts, 1% in (out, range #7-out)
6.0% WWLLL 8.82 pts, out
(46% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 10: Coshocton (1-4 D5 R19) over Warsaw River View (3-2 D4 R15)
Week 8: Oak Harbor (4-1 D5 R18) over Milan Edison (3-1 D4 R14)
Week 6: Archbold (4-1 D5 R18) over Bryan (4-1 D4 R14)
Week 10: Galion Northmor (5-0 D6 R23) over Marengo Highland (4-1 D4 R14)
Week 9: Celina (4-1 D3 R12) over Van Wert (3-2 D4 R14)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
32% Bellville Clear Fork (5-0)
30% St Marys Memorial (5-0)
11% Kenton (3-2)
10% Pepper Pike Orange (5-0)
7% Huron (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 105.4 (2-2, #287, D4 #38) 13% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 101.1 (1-2, #349, D4 #49) 4% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 105.8 (1-1, #282, D4 #39) 29% (need 6-4), 8% home, proj. out
W1: 102.0 (0-1, #335, D4 #43) 11% (bubble if 5-5), 2% home, proj. out
W0: 106.9 (0-0, #286, D4 #37) 22% (bubble if 6-4), 8% home, proj. out
Last year 108.9 (5-5)