Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#622 Sheffield Brookside (1-4) 76.4

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#103 of 106 in Division IV
#26 of 26 in Region 14
Eitel team page
Region 14 projections
Region 14 playoff probabilities
Region 14 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 0-56 H #377 Elyria Catholic (3-2 D5 R18), pick: L by 16 (78%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 13-56 A #491 Vermilion (2-3 D4 R14), pick: L by 19 (84%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 37-6 H #652 Cleveland John F Kennedy (1-4 D3 R10), pick: W by 3 (57%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 21-46 A #576 Oberlin (2-3 D6 R21), pick: W by 1 (50%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 7-44 H #370 Lorain Clearview (4-1 D4 R14), pick: L by 19 (86%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #475 Oberlin Firelands (2-3 D4 R14), pick: L by 19 (86%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #476 La Grange Keystone (1-4 D4 R14), pick: L by 14 (80%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #378 Sullivan Black River (3-2 D5 R17), pick: L by 17 (84%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #643 Wellington (1-4 D6 R21), pick: W by 4 (59%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #181 Medina Buckeye (4-1 D3 R9), pick: L by 29 (96%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#101 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 2-8
3.00 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R14 playoffs

Win probabilities:
1W-26%, 2W-47%, 3W-22%, 4W-4%

Best realistic scenario
4.0% LLWWL 5.65 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
26% LLLLL 1.65 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
32% LLLWL 2.95 pts, out
8.3% WLLWL 4.85 pts, out
6.6% WLLLL 3.95 pts, out
6.3% LWLWL 4.35 pts, out
5.0% LWLLL 3.45 pts, out
3.4% LLWLL 4.80 pts, out
(8% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 78.4 (1-3, #606, D4 #101) out
W3: 84.9 (1-2, #553, D4 #91) 1% , proj. out
W2: 80.9 (0-2, #586, D4 #101) 1% , proj. out
W1: 81.7 (0-1, #581, D4 #98) 1% , proj. out
W0: 84.8 (0-0, #578, D4 #100) 1% , proj. out
Last year 82.2 (2-8)