Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#237 Marengo Highland (4-1) 109.6

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#31 of 106 in Division IV
#9 of 26 in Region 14
Eitel team page
Region 14 projections
Region 14 playoff probabilities
Region 14 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 22-44 A #210 Bloom-Carroll (4-1 D4 R15), pick: L by 5 (59%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 47-16 A #346 Ontario (3-2 D4 R14), pick: L by 4 (57%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 41-8 H #388 Caledonia River Valley (2-3 D4 R14), pick: W by 8 (66%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 50-27 A #507 Danville (0-5 D7 R27), pick: W by 15 (80%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 36-6 H #481 Centerburg (3-2 D6 R23), pick: W by 18 (84%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #689 Mount Gilead (0-5 D6 R23), pick: W by 34 (98%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #574 Fredericktown (1-4 D5 R19), pick: W by 27 (95%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #667 Cardington-Lincoln (0-5 D7 R27), pick: W by 32 (97%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #414 Howard East Knox (5-0 D6 R23), pick: W by 13 (78%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #299 Galion Northmor (5-0 D6 R23), pick: W by 5 (61%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#61 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 8-2
16.20 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #7 seed in R14 playoffs

Win probabilities:
7W-9%, 8W-42%, 9W-49%

Playoff chance
80% now (need 8-2), 15% home
80% with a win in next game

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
7W: 12.95 (10.85-18.25) 11% in, 0% home, proj. out
8W: 16.20 (14.30-21.05) 73% in, 1% home, proj. #8 (#3-out)
9W: 19.70 (18.25-21.60) 99% in, 29% home, proj. #5 (#2-out)

Best realistic scenario
49% WWWWW 19.70 pts, 99% in, 29% home (#5, range #2-out) Kenton 25%

Worst realistic scenario
6.7% WWWLL 12.65 pts, 2% in (out, range #8-out)

Most likely other scenarios
27% WWWWL 16.10 pts, 70% in, 1% home (#8, range #4-out) Clear Fork 39%
12% WWWLW 16.35 pts, 74% in, 1% home (#8, range #4-out) Clear Fork 35%
2.2% WLWWW 18.35 pts, 98% in, 10% home (#6, range #3-out) Clear Fork 20%
1.3% WLWWL 14.67 pts, 27% in (out, range #6-out) St Marys Memorial 51%
0.5% WLWLW 14.95 pts, 39% in (out, range #6-out)
0.5% WWLWW 19.15 pts, 100% in, 20% home (#6, range #4-#8) Kenton 31%
(1% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 9: Ontario (3-2 D4 R14) over Galion (3-2 D4 R14)
Week 9: Caledonia River Valley (2-3 D4 R14) over Marion Harding (1-4 D2 R6)
Week 6: Ontario (3-2 D4 R14) over Delaware Buckeye Valley (1-4 D3 R11)
Week 7: Oak Harbor (4-1 D5 R18) over Huron (4-1 D4 R14)
Week 9: Liberty Center (5-0 D5 R18) over Bryan (4-1 D4 R14)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
18% Kenton (3-2)
18% Bellville Clear Fork (5-0)
17% St Marys Memorial (5-0)
16% Pepper Pike Orange (5-0)
15% Huron (4-1)

Championship probabilities
1.0% Region 14 champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 108.7 (3-1, #242, D4 #31) 60% (bubble if 8-2), 5% home, proj. #7
W3: 108.8 (2-1, #241, D4 #30) 56% (bubble if 8-2), 6% home, proj. out
W2: 105.8 (1-1, #281, D4 #38) 49% (need 8-2), 5% home, proj. #6
W1: 98.2 (0-1, #390, D4 #54) 19% (bubble if 7-3), 2% home, proj. out
W0: 105.2 (0-0, #310, D4 #43) 35% (bubble if 7-3), 11% home, proj. #8
Last year 108.4 (8-3)