Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#518 Upper Sandusky (3-2) 87.4

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#73 of 106 in Division V
#22 of 27 in Region 18
Eitel team page
Region 18 projections
Region 18 playoff probabilities
Region 18 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 17-16 A #388 Caledonia River Valley (2-3 D4 R14), pick: L by 21 (84%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 40-0 H #689 Mount Gilead (0-5 D6 R23), pick: W by 23 (88%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 0-34 H #389 Galion (3-2 D4 R14), pick: L by 8 (65%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 6-49 A #435 North Robinson Colonel Crawford (3-2 D6 R22), pick: W by 1 (53%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 42-6 H #699 New Washington Buckeye Central (0-5 D7 R26), pick: W by 28 (94%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #383 Carey (3-2 D6 R22), pick: L by 14 (79%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #323 Bucyrus Wynford (4-1 D6 R22), pick: L by 13 (78%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #293 Attica Seneca East (4-1 D6 R22), pick: L by 20 (88%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #616 Bucyrus (1-4 D5 R18), pick: W by 10 (72%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #206 Sycamore Mohawk (5-0 D7 R26), pick: L by 24 (92%)

Lists on which the team appears
Biggest upsets

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#87 of 106 in Division 5

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 4-6
4.70 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R18 playoffs

Win probabilities:
3W-12%, 4W-48%, 5W-31%, 6W-8%

Playoff chance
1% now
1% with a win in next game, and 1% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 10.45 (8.30-14.10) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out

Best realistic scenario
2.9% WWLWL 10.00 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)

Worst realistic scenario
12% LLLLL 3.35 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
39% LLLWL 4.50 pts, out
11% WLLWL 7.05 pts, out
9.3% LWLWL 7.47 pts, out
5.5% LLWWL 7.75 pts, out
3.6% WLLLL 5.85 pts, out
2.9% LWLLL 6.28 pts, out
(13% some other outcome)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
33% Genoa Area (5-0)
29% Marion Pleasant (5-0)
29% Liberty Center (5-0)
8% Archbold (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 87.7 (2-2, #513, D5 #70) 1% , proj. out
W3: 93.7 (2-1, #446, D5 #63) 3% (need 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 97.7 (2-0, #395, D5 #51) 14% (need 8-2), 2% home, proj. out
W1: 94.9 (1-0, #440, D5 #62) 10% (bubble if 8-2), 2% home, proj. out
W0: 86.8 (0-0, #555, D5 #86) 2% , proj. out
Last year 82.6 (3-7)