Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#443 Wauseon (1-4) 94.5

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#67 of 106 in Division IV
#20 of 26 in Region 14
Eitel team page
Region 14 projections
Region 14 playoff probabilities
Region 14 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 30-34 H #425 Sherwood Fairview (3-2 D6 R22), pick: W by 19 (82%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 36-7 A #541 Defiance Tinora (1-4 D6 R22), pick: W by 2 (54%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 6-43 H #300 Napoleon (3-2 D4 R14), pick: W by 13 (76%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 7-35 A #266 Archbold (4-1 D5 R18), pick: L by 18 (84%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 7-14 A #310 Bryan (4-1 D4 R14), pick: L by 12 (75%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #168 Liberty Center (5-0 D5 R18), pick: L by 18 (85%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #483 Swanton (2-3 D5 R18), pick: W by 1 (51%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #429 Metamora Evergreen (3-2 D6 R22), pick: W by 7 (66%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #327 Hamler Patrick Henry (2-3 D7 R26), pick: L by 1 (50%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #500 Delta (2-3 D6 R22), pick: W by 11 (74%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#49 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 3-7
5.50 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R14 playoffs

Win probabilities:
1W-4%, 2W-22%, 3W-37%, 4W-27%, 5W-8%

Playoff chance
1% now
1% with a win in next game, and 0% with a loss

Best realistic scenario
4.6% LWWWW 9.55 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
4.5% LLLLL 1.45 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
12% LWWLW 7.50 pts, out
11% LWLLW 5.10 pts, out
9.3% LLWLW 5.70 pts, out
9.0% LLLLW 3.28 pts, out
6.1% LWLLL 3.30 pts, out
6.0% LWWLL 5.70 pts, out
(37% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 94.7 (1-3, #442, D4 #68) 1% , proj. out
W3: 94.9 (1-2, #434, D4 #67) 1% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 105.4 (1-1, #289, D4 #40) 23% (bubble if 7-3), 3% home, proj. out
W1: 100.6 (0-1, #358, D4 #48) 10% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 111.9 (0-0, #226, D4 #27) 51% (bubble if 7-3), 21% home, proj. #5
Last year 113.2 (8-3)