Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#643 Wellington (1-4) 72.8

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#95 of 110 in Division VI
#23 of 28 in Region 21
Eitel team page
Region 21 projections
Region 21 playoff probabilities
Region 21 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 14-48 A #526 Parma Normandy (3-2 D2 R6), pick: L by 13 (73%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 21-56 A #416 Ashland Mapleton (4-1 D7 R25), pick: L by 16 (79%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 34-22 H #687 New London (0-5 D6 R22), pick: L by 2 (55%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 0-49 A #370 Lorain Clearview (4-1 D4 R14), pick: L by 27 (93%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 6-50 H #445 Rocky River Lutheran West (4-1 D4 R14), pick: L by 18 (84%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #181 Medina Buckeye (4-1 D3 R9), pick: L by 32 (97%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #475 Oberlin Firelands (2-3 D4 R14), pick: L by 26 (93%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #476 La Grange Keystone (1-4 D4 R14), pick: L by 16 (83%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #622 Sheffield Brookside (1-4 D4 R14), pick: L by 4 (59%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #378 Sullivan Black River (3-2 D5 R17), pick: L by 24 (92%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#47 of 110 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 2-8
1.95 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R21 playoffs

Win probabilities:
1W-38%, 2W-47%, 3W-14%, 4W-1%

Best realistic scenario
4.3% LWLWL 3.85 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
38% LLLLL 0.40 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
31% LLLWL 1.80 pts, out
7.7% LLWLL 2.30 pts, out
5.7% LLWWL 3.70 pts, out
5.4% LWLLL 2.75 pts, out
2.1% LLLLW 3.55 pts, out
(6% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 73.1 (1-3, #642, D6 #94) out
W3: 72.7 (1-2, #648, D6 #96) out
W2: 68.5 (0-2, #677, D6 #105) out
W1: 70.2 (0-1, #671, D6 #104) 1% , proj. out
W0: 75.0 (0-0, #657, D6 #100) 1% , proj. out
Last year 66.2 (0-10)