Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#246 Amanda-Clearcreek (8-1) 109.2

Updated 22-Oct-2018 5:56PM
Week 9 complete
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#17 of 106 in Division V
#2 of 26 in Region 19
Eitel team page
Region 19 projections
Region 19 playoff probabilities
Region 19 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 39-7 H #600 Hebron Lakewood (1-8 D4 R15), pick: W by 16 (77%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 35-0 H #467 Columbus East (3-6 D4 R15), pick: W by 25 (89%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 34-20 A #486 Baltimore Liberty Union (1-8 D5 R19), pick: W by 7 (64%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 28-14 H #588 Circleville Logan Elm (1-8 D4 R15), pick: W by 24 (91%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 45-6 A #469 Lancaster Fairfield Union (3-6 D4 R15), pick: W by 8 (67%)
Sep 28 (W6) W 17-14 H #285 Columbus Bishop Ready (3-6 D5 R19), pick: W by 1 (52%)
Oct 05 (W7) L 23-33 A #268 Bloom-Carroll (7-2 D4 R15), pick: L by 5 (61%)
Oct 12 (W8) W 47-2 H #636 Circleville (0-9 D4 R15), pick: W by 31 (97%)
Oct 19 (W9) W 37-0 A #339 Columbus Hamilton Township (4-5 D3 R11), pick: L by 1 (51%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #241 Ashville Teays Valley (6-3 D2 R8), pick: W by 1 (52%)

Lists on which the team appears
Key games this week
Key games by region

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#75 of 106 in Division 5

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 99
Projected record 9-1
17.53 Harbin points (divisor 99)
Projected #2 seed in R19 playoffs

Win probabilities:
8W-47%, 9W-53%

Playoff chance
99% now (need 8-2), 53% home
100% with a win in next game, and 99% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
8W: 13.80 (12.74-14.86) 99% in, 1% home, proj. #7 (#4-out)
9W: 17.53 (16.47-18.59) 100% in, 99% home, proj. #2 (#2-#6)

Playoff scenarios
53% W 17.53 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#2, range #2-#6) Oak Hill 36%
47% L 13.80 pts, 99% in, 1% home (#7, range #4-out) Johnstown-Monroe 35%

Teams to root for
Week 10: Portsmouth (6-3 D5 R20) over Ironton (6-3 D5 R19)
Week 10: Hebron Lakewood (1-8 D4 R15) over Utica (1-8 D4 R15)
Week 10: Columbus East (3-6 D4 R15) over Columbus Linden McKinley (0-9 D4 R15)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
24% Bellaire (7-2)
20% Oak Hill (7-2)
17% Johnstown-Monroe (8-1)
15% Byesville Meadowbrook (6-3)
14% West Lafayette Ridgewood (8-1)

Championship probabilities
11% Region 19 champ
0.6% Division 5 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W9: 109.2 (8-1, #246, D5 #17) 99% (need 8-2), 53% home, proj. #2
W8: 105.7 (7-1, #303, D5 #31) 81% (bubble if 7-3), 21% home, proj. #7
W7: 107.3 (6-1, #276, D5 #21) 81% (bubble if 7-3), 17% home, proj. #7
W6: 108.3 (6-0, #257, D5 #20) 84% (need 8-2), 29% home, proj. #7
W5: 106.5 (5-0, #277, D5 #25) 67% (need 8-2), 25% home, proj. #6
W4: 104.2 (4-0, #309, D5 #33) 62% (bubble if 7-3), 21% home, proj. #8
W3: 105.6 (3-0, #292, D5 #29) 47% (need 8-2), 11% home, proj. out
W2: 101.5 (2-0, #352, D5 #39) 23% (need 8-2), 4% home, proj. out
W1: 101.0 (1-0, #351, D5 #38) 30% (bubble if 7-3), 7% home, proj. out
W0: 100.8 (0-0, #382, D5 #47) 31% (bubble if 6-4), 11% home, proj. out
Last year 100.8 (6-4)