Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#307 Byesville Meadowbrook (2-3) 104.5

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#34 of 106 in Division V
#8 of 26 in Region 19
Eitel team page
Region 19 projections
Region 19 playoff probabilities
Region 19 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 32-26 A #249 New Concord John Glenn (2-3 D4 R15), pick: L by 12 (72%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 26-7 A #553 Barnesville (2-3 D6 R23), pick: W by 22 (87%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 22-49 H #119 St Clairsville (5-0 D4 R15), pick: L by 3 (55%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 22-26 A #326 Shadyside (4-1 D6 R23), pick: W by 12 (75%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 32-35 H #122 Mogadore (4-1 D6 R21), pick: L by 19 (86%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #484 Coshocton (1-4 D5 R19), pick: W by 12 (76%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #522 Belmont Union Local (3-2 D5 R19), pick: W by 13 (78%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #489 Warsaw River View (3-2 D4 R15), pick: W by 14 (80%)
Oct 19 (W9) H Linsly WV, [L by 7, 65%]
Oct 26 (W10) A #454 Cambridge (1-4 D4 R15), pick: W by 8 (69%)

Lists on which the team appears
Toughest schedules

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#8 of 106 in Division 5

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 99
Projected record 6-4
14.01 Harbin points (divisor 99)
Projected #7 seed in R19 playoffs

Win probabilities:
4W-12%, 5W-33%, 6W-39%, 7W-14%

Playoff chance
59% now (bubble if 5-5), 8% home
63% with a win in next game, and 38% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
4W: 9.73 (7.10-12.71) 5% in, 0% home, proj. out
5W: 11.90 (8.76-15.33) 34% in, 1% home, proj. out
6W: 14.01 (11.29-17.75) 84% in, 4% home, proj. #7 (#2-out)
7W: 16.68 (14.06-19.36) 99% in, 48% home, proj. #5 (#1-out)

Best realistic scenario
14% WWWWW 16.68 pts, 99% in, 48% home (#5, range #1-out) Bellaire 16%

Worst realistic scenario
2.1% WWLLL 9.22 pts, 2% in (out, range #8-out)

Most likely other scenarios
26% WWWLW 13.71 pts, 80% in, 2% home (#7, range #2-out) Johnstown-Monroe 27%
11% WWWLL 12.05 pts, 36% in (out, range #5-out) Johnstown-Monroe 36%
5.9% LWWLW 12.10 pts, 39% in (out, range #5-out) Johnstown-Monroe 39%
5.6% WWLLW 11.04 pts, 16% in (out, range #6-out) Bellaire 35%
5.3% WLWLW 11.49 pts, 25% in (out, range #6-out) Johnstown-Monroe 37%
5.0% WWWWL 14.92 pts, 94% in, 8% home (#6, range #2-out) Johnstown-Monroe 22%
(25% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 7: Sugarcreek Garaway (5-0 D6 R21) over West Lafayette Ridgewood (5-0 D5 R19)
Week 9: New Concord John Glenn (2-3 D4 R15) over New Lexington (4-1 D4 R15)
Week 7: Bloom-Carroll (4-1 D4 R15) over Amanda-Clearcreek (5-0 D5 R19)
Week 8: Weir WV (4-1 D4) over Richmond Edison (3-2 D5 R19)
Week 9: Whitehall-Yearling (4-1 D2 R7) over Columbus Bishop Ready (2-3 D5 R19)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
24% Johnstown-Monroe (4-1)
21% Bellaire (5-0)
16% Martins Ferry (4-1)
13% Ironton (3-2)
7% Oak Hill (4-1)

Championship probabilities
3.9% Region 19 champ
0.2% Division 5 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 102.0 (2-2, #340, D5 #40) 61% (bubble if 5-5), 13% home, proj. out
W3: 107.1 (2-1, #271, D5 #23) 93% (bubble if 5-5), 57% home, proj. #4
W2: 110.9 (2-0, #209, D5 #13) 96% (bubble if 5-5), 77% home, proj. #2
W1: 109.9 (1-0, #226, D5 #15) 92% (need 6-4), 68% home, proj. #1
W0: 104.8 (0-0, #320, D5 #28) 51% (bubble if 6-4), 25% home, proj. #7
Last year 110.5 (8-3)