Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#210 Bloom-Carroll (4-1) 111.5

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#23 of 106 in Division IV
#3 of 27 in Region 15
Eitel team page
Region 15 projections
Region 15 playoff probabilities
Region 15 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 44-22 H #237 Marengo Highland (4-1 D4 R14), pick: W by 5 (59%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 41-13 A #490 Baltimore Liberty Union (0-5 D5 R19), pick: W by 15 (77%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 51-21 H #617 Hebron Lakewood (1-4 D4 R15), pick: W by 31 (95%)
Sep 13 (W4) L 10-35 A #164 Ashville Teays Valley (3-2 D2 R8), pick: W by 7 (65%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 31-20 H #371 Columbus Hamilton Township (1-4 D3 R11), pick: W by 12 (76%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #614 Circleville (0-5 D4 R15), pick: W by 28 (95%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #278 Amanda-Clearcreek (5-0 D5 R19), pick: W by 8 (68%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #296 Gahanna Columbus Academy (3-2 D5 R19), pick: W by 2 (55%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #462 Lancaster Fairfield Union (2-3 D4 R15), pick: W by 14 (79%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #572 Circleville Logan Elm (0-5 D4 R15), pick: W by 27 (94%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#54 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 99
Projected record 8-2
16.37 Harbin points (divisor 99)
Projected #5 seed in R15 playoffs

Win probabilities:
6W-4%, 7W-21%, 8W-45%, 9W-31%

Playoff chance
93% now (need 7-3), 37% home
93% with a win in next game, and 88% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 10.78 (8.40-15.22) 31% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 13.10 (10.82-19.16) 80% in, 2% home, proj. #7 (#3-out)
8W: 16.37 (13.29-20.87) 99% in, 25% home, proj. #5 (#2-out)
9W: 19.55 (17.33-22.73) 100% in, 83% home, proj. #4 (#2-#6)

Best realistic scenario
31% WWWWW 19.55 pts, 100% in, 83% home (#4, range #2-#6) Gallia Academy 33%

Worst realistic scenario
2.3% WLLLW 10.27 pts, 12% in (out, range #6-out) St Clairsville 56%

Most likely other scenarios
20% WWLWW 16.83 pts, 100% in, 32% home (#5, range #2-#8) Gallia Academy 34%
17% WLWWW 15.26 pts, 99% in, 9% home (#6, range #3-out) Unioto 31%
11% WLLWW 12.59 pts, 72% in, 1% home (#8, range #4-out) St Clairsville 41%
5.9% WWWLW 17.18 pts, 99% in, 37% home (#5, range #2-out) Gallia Academy 34%
4.0% WWLLW 14.46 pts, 94% in, 4% home (#6, range #4-out) Indian Valley 25%
3.3% WLWLW 13.00 pts, 77% in (#8, range #5-out) Indian Valley 34%
(6% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 9: Ironton (3-2 D5 R19) over Gallipolis Gallia Academy (4-1 D4 R15)
Week 6: Baltimore Liberty Union (0-5 D5 R19) over Columbus Bexley (1-4 D4 R15)
Week 9: Granville (4-1 D3 R11) over Newark Licking Valley (3-2 D4 R15)
Week 6: Bainbridge Paint Valley (5-0 D6 R23) over Chillicothe Unioto (4-1 D4 R15)
Week 8: Portsmouth (3-2 D5 R20) over Proctorville Fairland (3-2 D4 R15)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
27% Gallipolis Gallia Academy (4-1)
22% Chillicothe Unioto (4-1)
13% Proctorville Fairland (3-2)
12% Gnadenhutten Indian Valley (5-0)
7% St Clairsville (5-0)

Championship probabilities
8.0% Region 15 champ
0.3% Division 4 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 110.6 (3-1, #215, D4 #26) 87% (need 7-3), 41% home, proj. #3
W3: 116.9 (3-0, #150, D4 #15) 98% (bubble if 6-4), 84% home, proj. #3
W2: 116.0 (2-0, #159, D4 #16) 95% (bubble if 6-4), 61% home, proj. #3
W1: 111.9 (1-0, #203, D4 #24) 92% (bubble if 6-4), 67% home, proj. #2
W0: 108.8 (0-0, #266, D4 #31) 60% (bubble if 6-4), 34% home, proj. #7
Last year 111.4 (8-3)