Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#321 Chillicothe Unioto (4-1) 103.7

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#44 of 106 in Division IV
#8 of 27 in Region 15
Eitel team page
Region 15 projections
Region 15 playoff probabilities
Region 15 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 21-6 H #533 McArthur Vinton County (1-4 D4 R15), pick: W by 5 (60%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 34-6 A #625 Greenfield McClain (1-4 D4 R16), pick: W by 27 (91%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 7-37 H #180 Waverly (5-0 D4 R16), pick: L by 3 (56%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 33-15 H #485 Frankfort Adena (3-1 D6 R23), pick: W by 8 (67%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 21-0 A #449 Chillicothe Zane Trace (3-2 D4 R15), pick: W by 1 (51%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #396 Bainbridge Paint Valley (5-0 D6 R23), pick: W by 3 (57%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #497 Chillicothe Southeastern (4-1 D6 R23), pick: W by 13 (78%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #534 Williamsport Westfall (3-2 D4 R15), pick: W by 10 (73%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #594 Chillicothe Huntington (3-2 D6 R23), pick: W by 23 (91%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #649 Piketon (0-5 D5 R20), pick: W by 24 (92%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#93 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 99
Projected record 8-2
18.75 Harbin points (divisor 99)
Projected #3 seed in R15 playoffs

Win probabilities:
6W-3%, 7W-16%, 8W-44%, 9W-37%

Playoff chance
99% now (need 6-4), 80% home
99% with a win in next game, and 98% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 13.15 (11.08-16.79) 77% in, 3% home, proj. #7 (#3-out)
7W: 15.83 (13.50-20.52) 99% in, 30% home, proj. #5 (#2-out)
8W: 18.75 (16.38-23.30) 100% in, 86% home, proj. #4 (#2-#7)
9W: 22.13 (20.62-24.10) 100% in, 100% home, proj. #3 (#1-#4)

Best realistic scenario
37% WWWWW 22.13 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#3, range #1-#4) Fairland 18%

Worst realistic scenario
4.9% LWLWW 15.57 pts, 98% in, 18% home (#5, range #3-out) Bloom-Carroll 22%

Most likely other scenarios
24% LWWWW 18.35 pts, 100% in, 81% home (#4, range #2-#7) Bloom-Carroll 26%
8.1% WLWWW 19.16 pts, 100% in, 91% home (#3, range #2-#6) Bloom-Carroll 24%
7.5% WWLWW 19.36 pts, 100% in, 90% home (#3, range #2-#6) Bloom-Carroll 23%
5.3% LLWWW 15.32 pts, 99% in, 20% home (#5, range #3-out) Bloom-Carroll 26%
2.6% WWWLW 19.91 pts, 100% in, 96% home (#3, range #2-#5) Fairland 19%
(11% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 9: Ironton (3-2 D5 R19) over Gallipolis Gallia Academy (4-1 D4 R15)
Week 7: Amanda-Clearcreek (5-0 D5 R19) over Bloom-Carroll (4-1 D4 R15)
Week 8: Gahanna Columbus Academy (3-2 D5 R19) over Bloom-Carroll (4-1 D4 R15)
Week 10: Pataskala Licking Heights (4-1 D2 R7) over Newark Licking Valley (3-2 D4 R15)
Week 10: McArthur Vinton County (1-4 D4 R15) over Wellston (2-3 D5 R19)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
21% Bloom-Carroll (4-1)
18% Gallipolis Gallia Academy (4-1)
16% Proctorville Fairland (3-2)
12% Newark Licking Valley (3-2)
11% Duncan Falls Philo (3-2)

Championship probabilities
2.4% Region 15 champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 100.3 (3-1, #358, D4 #51) 91% (bubble if 6-4), 56% home, proj. #4
W3: 96.8 (2-1, #405, D4 #61) 72% (bubble if 6-4), 30% home, proj. #4
W2: 102.4 (2-0, #338, D4 #49) 91% (bubble if 6-4), 53% home, proj. #4
W1: 101.0 (1-0, #352, D4 #47) 86% (bubble if 6-4), 56% home, proj. #3
W0: 98.7 (0-0, #412, D4 #64) 49% (bubble if 7-3), 21% home, proj. #6
Last year 102.2 (8-3)