Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#236 Gallipolis Gallia Academy (8-1) 109.9

Updated 22-Oct-2018 5:56PM
Week 9 complete
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#31 of 107 in Division IV
#5 of 27 in Region 15
Eitel team page
Region 15 projections
Region 15 playoff probabilities
Region 15 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 47-34 H #492 Pomeroy Meigs (3-6 D4 R15), pick: L by 1 (52%)
Sep 01 (W2) W 46-0 H #659 Bidwell River Valley (0-9 D5 R19), pick: W by 18 (82%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 9-15 A #209 Jackson (6-3 D3 R11), pick: L by 17 (82%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 55-20 A #496 Chesapeake (5-4 D5 R19), pick: W by 13 (76%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 34-7 A #389 Portsmouth (6-3 D5 R20), pick: L by 1 (52%)
Sep 28 (W6) W 53-35 H #422 Proctorville Fairland (5-4 D4 R15), pick: W by 9 (71%)
Oct 05 (W7) W 42-20 A #463 Coal Grove Dawson-Bryant (4-5 D6 R23), pick: W by 9 (70%)
Oct 12 (W8) W 43-20 H #574 Ironton Rock Hill (2-7 D5 R19), pick: W by 24 (93%)
Oct 19 (W9) W 36-33 A #311 Ironton (6-3 D5 R19), pick: W by 1 (51%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #683 South Point (0-9 D5 R19), pick: W by 38 (99%)

Lists on which the team appears
Most improved teams

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#92 of 107 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 9-1
19.80 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #2 seed in R15 playoffs

Win probabilities:
9W-100%

Playoff chance
100% now (need 9-1), 100% home
100% with a win in next game

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
9W: 19.80 (19.25-20.15) 100% in, 100% home, proj. #2 (#2-#3)

Playoff scenarios
100% W 19.80 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#2, range #2-#3) Unioto 29%
0.1% L 19.35 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#3, range #2-#3) Unioto 61%

Teams to root for
Week 10: Warsaw River View (4-5 D4 R15) over Coshocton (1-8 D5 R19)
Week 10: Cuyahoga Falls Cuyahoga Valley Christian Academy (6-3 D4 R13) over Akron Manchester (7-2 D5 R17)
Week 10: Pomeroy Meigs (3-6 D4 R15) over Albany Alexander (4-5 D5 R19)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
29% Chillicothe Unioto (6-3)
24% Newark Licking Valley (6-3)
20% Proctorville Fairland (5-4)
14% Duncan Falls Philo (6-3)
13% New Concord John Glenn (6-3)

Championship probabilities
8.1% Region 15 champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W9: 109.9 (8-1, #236, D4 #31) in with home game, proj. #2
W8: 108.5 (7-1, #255, D4 #35) in and 88% home, proj. #2
W7: 108.4 (6-1, #252, D4 #36) in and 87% home, proj. #4
W6: 107.2 (5-1, #270, D4 #36) 99% (need 6-4), 69% home, proj. #3
W5: 104.8 (4-1, #305, D4 #42) 96% (bubble if 6-4), 46% home, proj. #4
W4: 100.1 (3-1, #360, D4 #52) 67% (bubble if 6-4), 18% home, proj. #6
W3: 100.1 (2-1, #362, D4 #52) 61% (bubble if 6-4), 17% home, proj. #8
W2: 99.3 (2-0, #376, D4 #57) 62% (bubble if 6-4), 17% home, proj. #6
W1: 98.3 (1-0, #389, D4 #53) 64% (bubble if 6-4), 26% home, proj. #8
W0: 94.3 (0-0, #483, D4 #80) 22% (need 7-3), 7% home, proj. out
Last year 94.2 (5-5)