Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#531 Ironton Rock Hill (1-4) 85.8

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#79 of 106 in Division V
#19 of 26 in Region 19
Eitel team page
Region 19 projections
Region 19 playoff probabilities
Region 19 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 20-27 H #325 Minford (5-0 D5 R20), pick: L by 5 (60%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 33-0 A #696 McDermott Northwest (0-5 D5 R20), pick: W by 12 (73%)
Sep 08 (W3) L 29-34 H #436 Oak Hill (4-1 D5 R19), pick: L by 1 (53%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 14-28 A #441 Portsmouth (3-2 D5 R20), pick: L by 12 (74%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 35-42 H #411 Proctorville Fairland (3-2 D4 R15), pick: L by 8 (69%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #688 South Point (0-5 D5 R19), pick: W by 20 (88%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #290 Ironton (3-2 D5 R19), pick: L by 17 (85%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #305 Gallipolis Gallia Academy (4-1 D4 R15), pick: L by 15 (81%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #511 Chesapeake (3-2 D5 R19), pick: W by 4 (60%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #472 Coal Grove Dawson-Bryant (3-2 D6 R23), pick: L by 15 (81%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#64 of 106 in Division 5

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 3-7
4.15 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R19 playoffs

Win probabilities:
1W-3%, 2W-30%, 3W-42%, 4W-22%, 5W-3%

Playoff chance
1% now
1% with a win in next game, and 1% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
4W: 6.95 (4.70-11.00) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
5W: 9.90 (7.80-13.15) 2% in, 0% home, proj. out

Best realistic scenario
3.1% WLWWL 7.70 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
3.2% LLLLL 1.15 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
24% WLLLL 1.60 pts, out
21% WLLWL 3.95 pts, out
11% WLLLW 3.80 pts, out
10% WLLWW 6.35 pts, out
3.8% WWLLL 4.80 pts, out
3.7% WWLWL 7.15 pts, out
(20% some other outcome)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
39% Johnstown-Monroe (4-1)
22% Bellaire (5-0)
17% Martins Ferry (4-1)
9% Oak Hill (4-1)
9% West Lafayette Ridgewood (5-0)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 86.7 (1-3, #523, D5 #73) 2% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 88.5 (1-2, #509, D5 #71) 2% , proj. out
W2: 89.4 (1-1, #504, D5 #78) 12% (bubble if 6-4), 2% home, proj. out
W1: 85.1 (0-1, #557, D5 #83) 6% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 88.2 (0-0, #542, D5 #82) 17% (bubble if 6-4), 5% home, proj. out
Last year 89.1 (4-6)