Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#440 New Lexington (5-4) 94.5

Updated 22-Oct-2018 5:56PM
Week 9 complete
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#69 of 107 in Division IV
#11 of 27 in Region 15
Eitel team page
Region 15 projections
Region 15 playoff probabilities
Region 15 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 27-14 A #469 Lancaster Fairfield Union (3-6 D4 R15), pick: L by 4 (58%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 48-0 H #689 Zanesville West Muskingum (0-9 D5 R19), pick: W by 29 (93%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 42-7 A #620 McConnelsville Morgan (1-8 D4 R15), pick: W by 19 (84%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 8-20 H #364 Zanesville Maysville (5-4 D3 R11), pick: W by 7 (65%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 32-29 H #511 Coshocton (1-8 D5 R19), pick: W by 9 (70%)
Sep 28 (W6) L 0-30 A #109 Dresden Tri-Valley (8-1 D2 R7), pick: L by 29 (95%)
Oct 05 (W7) W 22-20 H #584 Crooksville (2-7 D6 R23), pick: W by 22 (90%)
Oct 12 (W8) L 0-49 A #107 Thornville Sheridan (8-1 D3 R11), pick: L by 28 (96%)
Oct 19 (W9) L 0-34 H #182 New Concord John Glenn (6-3 D4 R15), pick: L by 16 (84%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #247 Duncan Falls Philo (6-3 D4 R15), pick: L by 16 (84%)

Lists on which the team appears
Key games by region

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#74 of 107 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 5-5
6.20 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R15 playoffs

Win probabilities:
5W-84%, 6W-16%

Playoff scenarios
16% W 9.55 pts, out
84% L 6.20 pts, out

Weekly ranking & projection history
W9: 94.5 (5-4, #440, D4 #69) out
W8: 94.8 (5-3, #439, D4 #68) 3% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W7: 94.8 (5-2, #440, D4 #69) 8% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W6: 97.4 (4-2, #406, D4 #61) 16% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W5: 97.5 (4-1, #402, D4 #58) 13% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W4: 99.3 (3-1, #371, D4 #53) 18% (need 7-3), 2% home, proj. out
W3: 104.7 (3-0, #305, D4 #41) 50% (need 7-3), 11% home, proj. #6
W2: 101.7 (2-0, #348, D4 #50) 17% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 102.0 (1-0, #337, D4 #44) 21% (bubble if 7-3), 4% home, proj. out
W0: 97.7 (0-0, #432, D4 #70) 4% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 97.3 (3-7)