Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#649 Piketon (0-5) 72.4

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#97 of 106 in Division V
#21 of 26 in Region 20
Eitel team page
Region 20 projections
Region 20 playoff probabilities
Region 20 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 6-50 H #180 Waverly (5-0 D4 R16), pick: L by 15 (76%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 14-48 A #517 Wellston (2-3 D5 R19), pick: L by 6 (62%)
Sep 08 (W3) L 6-44 H #532 Lucasville Valley (2-3 D6 R23), pick: L by 4 (58%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 8-41 A #396 Bainbridge Paint Valley (5-0 D6 R23), pick: L by 22 (89%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 12-42 A #497 Chillicothe Southeastern (4-1 D6 R23), pick: L by 16 (82%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #485 Frankfort Adena (3-1 D6 R23), pick: L by 16 (83%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #534 Williamsport Westfall (3-2 D4 R15), pick: L by 13 (78%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #594 Chillicothe Huntington (3-2 D6 R23), pick: L by 3 (57%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #449 Chillicothe Zane Trace (3-2 D4 R15), pick: L by 25 (93%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #321 Chillicothe Unioto (4-1 D4 R15), pick: L by 24 (92%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#53 of 106 in Division 5

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 99
Projected record 1-9
2.37 Harbin points (divisor 99)
Projected out of R20 playoffs

Win probabilities:
0W-36%, 1W-44%, 2W-17%, 3W-3%

Playoff chance
1% now
1% with a win in next game, and 0% with a loss

Best realistic scenario
2.3% LLWWL 4.89 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
36% LLLLL 0.00 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
22% LLWLL 1.97 pts, out
12% LWLLL 2.37 pts, out
7.0% LWWLL 4.44 pts, out
5.2% WLLLL 2.62 pts, out
3.6% LLLWL 2.82 pts, out
3.0% WLWLL 4.69 pts, out
(10% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 74.1 (0-4, #634, D5 #96) 1% , proj. out
W3: 74.7 (0-3, #635, D5 #97) 1% , proj. out
W2: 81.1 (0-2, #583, D5 #88) 2% (need 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 85.1 (0-1, #556, D5 #82) 7% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 88.8 (0-0, #538, D5 #81) 14% (need 7-3), 4% home, proj. out
Last year 87.7 (4-6)