Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#119 St Clairsville (5-0) 120.0

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#13 of 106 in Division IV
#2 of 27 in Region 15
Eitel team page
Region 15 projections
Region 15 playoff probabilities
Region 15 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 31-13 H #243 Carrollton (3-2 D4 R13), pick: W by 10 (68%)
Sep 01 (W2) W 34-14 H #464 Pomeroy Meigs (2-3 D4 R15), pick: W by 24 (89%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 49-22 A #307 Byesville Meadowbrook (2-3 D5 R19), pick: W by 3 (55%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 41-13 H #260 Martins Ferry (4-1 D5 R19), pick: W by 13 (76%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 14-7 A #319 Wintersville Indian Creek (3-2 D4 R13), pick: W by 17 (83%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #455 Cadiz Harrison Central (1-4 D4 R15), pick: W by 23 (91%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #318 Bellaire (5-0 D5 R19), pick: W by 18 (86%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #522 Belmont Union Local (3-2 D5 R19), pick: W by 29 (96%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #188 Canfield South Range (3-2 D5 R17), pick: W by 8 (68%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #652 Cleveland John F Kennedy (1-4 D3 R10), pick: W by 38 (99%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#29 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 9-1
26.65 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #1 seed in R15 playoffs

Win probabilities:
7W-1%, 8W-9%, 9W-43%, 10W-47%

Playoff chance
100% now (need 8-2), 100% home
100% with a win in next game, and 100% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
8W: 23.52 (19.55-28.20) 100% in, 100% home, proj. #2 (#1-#4)
9W: 26.65 (22.50-31.60) 100% in, 100% home, proj. #1 (#1-#3)
10W: 29.60 (25.40-33.75) 100% in, 100% home, proj. #1 (#1-#2)

Best realistic scenario
47% WWWWW 29.60 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#1, range #1-#2) Philo 18%

Worst realistic scenario
4.9% WLWLW 22.90 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#2, range #1-#4) Philo 20%

Most likely other scenarios
30% WWWLW 26.80 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#1, range #1-#2) Philo 19%
8.4% WLWWW 25.65 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#1, range #1-#3) Philo 17%
3.2% LWWWW 27.50 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#1, range #1-#2) Harrison Central 19%
2.3% LWWLW 24.60 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#1, range #1-#3) Fairland 18%
(4% some other outcome)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
18% Duncan Falls Philo (3-2)
15% Chillicothe Zane Trace (3-2)
14% Proctorville Fairland (3-2)
11% Newark Licking Valley (3-2)
9% New Concord John Glenn (2-3)

Championship probabilities
35% Region 15 champ
3.5% Division 4 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 120.9 (4-0, #114, D4 #11) in and 99% home, proj. #1
W3: 119.6 (3-0, #124, D4 #13) 99% (need 7-3), 99% home, proj. #1
W2: 115.0 (2-0, #171, D4 #17) 98% (bubble if 5-5), 85% home, proj. #1
W1: 112.1 (1-0, #197, D4 #22) 96% (bubble if 5-5), 84% home, proj. #1
W0: 110.7 (0-0, #244, D4 #28) 82% (need 6-4), 59% home, proj. #1
Last year 111.7 (8-3)