Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#180 Waverly (5-0) 114.2

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#17 of 106 in Division IV
#5 of 26 in Region 16
Eitel team page
Region 16 projections
Region 16 playoff probabilities
Region 16 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 50-6 A #649 Piketon (0-5 D5 R20), pick: W by 15 (76%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 48-3 H #449 Chillicothe Zane Trace (3-2 D4 R15), pick: W by 10 (69%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 37-7 A #321 Chillicothe Unioto (4-1 D4 R15), pick: W by 3 (56%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 41-27 H #411 Proctorville Fairland (3-2 D4 R15), pick: W by 16 (81%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 31-14 H #473 Nelsonville-York (1-4 D6 R23), pick: W by 23 (91%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #532 Lucasville Valley (2-3 D6 R23), pick: W by 23 (91%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #77 Wheelersburg (4-1 D5 R20), pick: L by 12 (75%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #277 West Portsmouth Portsmouth West (4-1 D5 R20), pick: W by 5 (62%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #325 Minford (5-0 D5 R20), pick: W by 9 (70%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #332 Logan (1-4 D2 R7), pick: W by 15 (81%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#94 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 8-2
21.15 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #5 seed in R16 playoffs

Win probabilities:
6W-2%, 7W-13%, 8W-36%, 9W-39%, 10W-10%

Playoff chance
97% now (bubble if 6-4), 58% home
97% with a win in next game, and 93% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 15.70 (12.75-19.95) 40% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 18.45 (14.20-22.90) 88% in, 7% home, proj. #6 (#3-out)
8W: 21.15 (17.20-26.60) 99% in, 36% home, proj. #5 (#2-out)
9W: 24.30 (20.45-29.20) 100% in, 87% home, proj. #3 (#1-#8)
10W: 27.90 (24.55-31.60) 100% in, 99% home, proj. #2 (#1-#5)

Best realistic scenario
10% WWWWW 27.90 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#2, range #1-#5) London 14%

Worst realistic scenario
4.5% WLLLW 17.25 pts, 73% in, 1% home (#7, range #4-out) Clinton-Massie 32%

Most likely other scenarios
26% WLWWW 23.95 pts, 100% in, 84% home (#4, range #1-#8) Indian Hill 25%
11% WLWLW 20.20 pts, 99% in, 21% home (#5, range #3-out) Indian Hill 24%
11% WLLWW 20.90 pts, 99% in, 29% home (#5, range #2-out) Taft 27%
7.3% WLWWL 22.05 pts, 100% in, 50% home (#5, range #2-#8) Indian Hill 28%
4.6% WWWLW 24.40 pts, 100% in, 88% home (#3, range #1-#6) Indian Hill 21%
4.5% WWLWW 25.00 pts, 100% in, 93% home (#3, range #1-#6) Indian Hill 22%
(21% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 6: Mergenthaler MD (3-0 D1) over Cincinnati Taft (4-1 D4 R16)
Week 6: Nelsonville-York (1-4 D6 R23) over Pomeroy Meigs (2-3 D4 R15)
Week 8: Proctorville Fairland (3-2 D4 R15) over Portsmouth (3-2 D5 R20)
Week 7: Columbus Grandview Heights (5-0 D6 R23) over London (5-0 D4 R16)
Week 10: Cincinnati Wyoming (5-0 D4 R16) over Cincinnati Indian Hill (4-1 D4 R16)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
23% Cincinnati Indian Hill (4-1)
18% Cincinnati Taft (4-1)
13% London (5-0)
7% Springfield Shawnee (4-1)
7% Cincinnati Wyoming (5-0)

Championship probabilities
5.1% Region 16 champ
0.3% Division 4 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 113.6 (4-0, #185, D4 #15) 97% (bubble if 6-4), 60% home, proj. #5
W3: 111.0 (3-0, #211, D4 #22) 87% (need 7-3), 44% home, proj. #4
W2: 106.9 (2-0, #270, D4 #34) 69% (bubble if 6-4), 20% home, proj. #7
W1: 104.8 (1-0, #297, D4 #39) 65% (bubble if 6-4), 17% home, proj. #6
W0: 105.1 (0-0, #315, D4 #45) 51% (bubble if 6-4), 17% home, proj. #6
Last year 109.5 (7-4)